Editor in Chief: Moh. Reza Huwaida Thursday, March 28th, 2024

Few Points about Result of Presidential Election

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Few Points about Result of Presidential Election

The Independent Election Commission announced around 50 percent of primary result of 6th April Presidential Election. Despite consistent emphasis of officials over the issue that the announcement of larger percentage of presidential election vote may bring changes to earlier candidates’ status but nothing happened. The fifty percent of partial result set Dr. Abdullah Abdullah and Ashraff Ghani Ahmadzai on the same stages as the earlier five percent of the result did. Though IEC officials still point finger that presidential candidates should be prepared to accept the result and they do not hurry to announce themselves as winner, seemingly the final result also may not bring visible change to array of presidential candidates as partial primary result showed. Dr. Abdullah Abdullah the staunch rival of Mr. President Karzai in 2009 is the frontrunner with Ashraff Ghani and Zalmail Rasoul following him as second and third presidential runner with highest level of votes.

Though I cannot reject that the full primary result which will be announced only within few upcoming days may bring changes to percentage of votes each candidate have gained, but if it goes the partial result reflect, there is a visible gap between Dr. Abdullah Abdullah as frontrunner and his close rival Dr. Ashraff Ghani Ahmadzai. From 50 percent of the announced result, he gained around 44 percent of casted votes and Mr. Ahmadzai follow him gaining only around 33 percent of the votes. While Mr. Zalmai Rasoul through gaining only 10 percent of the vote seems to have no chance to go for the second round. In other words, the votes gained by Ashraff Ghani and Zalmai Rasoul only jointly can match the level of votes Dr. Abdullah has gained.

It is somehow surprising and a sign of shifting political power. After withdrawal of Mr. Qayom Karzai the brother of President Karzai to favor of Zalmai Rasoul, rumors went around that President Karzai is engineering the Presidential Election. Many believed that though the his relation with foreign allies particularly the United States is tense but he still plays lynchpin role in, as well as outside of the country. Indeed, it was deemed that his favorite candidate may have the highest chance to replace him. But nothing happened at all despite believes that palace was supporting Zalmai Rasoul; however, with exception that analysts still believe on capacity of President Karzai. It is still believed that he could bring his favorite candidate to power or prevent his opposition. But he stood aside and did not do anything which might ruin the electoral safety and transparency.

Provided that everything goes smoothly till he says goodbye and the new president replaces him, the history will recall him as good figure who played key role in peace and stability of the country. Unlike his predecessors, he may just give up the power and support the country on its normal path. “Go and select your next president”, he said while addressing a group of women during celebration of International Women Day. He also emphasized that there was no way back to the past, rejecting worries about possible relapse of the country its historical chaos and crisis. He said that the backward way is concreted.

So, if he plays well and remains committed to his promise for ensuring the fair and transparency of the election, he would be remembered as founder of new political system. As said his favorite candidate will possibly will lose and he just started respecting the people’s votes and decision. After the election, Zalmai Rasoul said that he would respect opinions of people. So, if everything moves as has moved since April 6 election then the power transfer will happen enviably peaceful.

But the question is why the favorite candidate of palace fall far behind the leading presidential runner? In the previous two presidential elections held in 2004 and 2009, one of the candidates was President Karzai who could easily surpassed his rival in terms of facilities. It was not difficult to guess about the final result of the elections. In 2004, the number of candidates were so huge. From each major ethnic groups several people nominated themselves for presidency.

In such a condition, while he had facilities and full support from international allies then the destiny of election was clear. Nobody could even compete with him because of full support from western countries and reputation as indisputable leader of Pashtun community.

The situation a bit changed in 2009. The number of presidential candidates decreased and relation between Kabul and foreign allies also became tense. He failed to win 50+1 percent of total casted votes that also when less than 40 percent of people took part in election. However, he was announced as the winner of the election when his close rival Dr. Abdullah Abdullah withdrew of running for the second round.

But this time the situation was completely different. Except Dr. Abdullah Abdullah and General Abdul Rashid Dostom who still have remained as indisputable leaders from Tajik and Uzbek communities respectively, the votes of other communities dispersed. Hence, one of the key reasons of Abdullah’s is lack of similar leader from Pashtun community. But, however, if the elections go for the second round, it is not clear how the largest community will react. Because as far as the history of last century shows, if this particular community felt domination from the rest of communities, it could easily realign the power and make strong united front. Thus, if none of the candidates win 50­+1 in the present round, then it will remain difficult to say who would be ultimate winner.

Masood Korosh is the permanent writer of the Daily Outlook Afghanistan. He can be reached at outlookafghanistan@gmail.com

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