The Pakistani government is on the verge of launching a major military offensive in the North Waziristan tribal region of FATA after brutal Taliban attacks in recent weeks and the apparent failure of peace talks with the militants. This shift in the policy of the government which was previously eagerly wanted to talk peace with Taliban was already put in play as talks between the government and the Taliban, which began earlier this month, were put on hold following the killing of 23 soldiers on February 16. The overture was replaced by a series of deadly air strikes by Pakistani armed forces in the northwest region of the country that have left over 100 fighter’s dead. Both the sides are now realising that conflict is just coming, that this will going to be settled militarily and both sides are just buying time now to get themselves prepared. The Pakistani military has grown frustrated because of recent Taliban attacks which dented its image of undefeatable mighty force in the Pakistani society and now eagerly wants to launch an aggressive military campaign into not just North Waziristan but also on its northern, ungoverned regions along the border with Afghanistan. On the other side Taliban also looks all prepared to face the military campaign as their spokesman Shahidullah Shahid said that they are ready to face any military operation.

Prime Minister Nawaz Sharif’s national security adviser Sartaj Aziz said cabinet-level consultations on the military option will take place this week. Moreover he told dialogue with the Taliban has derailed, and the writ of the state will be established in the region while talking to reporters in Islamabad, the nation’s capital. In the political set up of the country as well demand for a military action is growing as major political parties including Pakistan People’s Party (PPP), and Muttahida Qaumi Movement (MQM) are staunch supporter of the offensive and even the Pakistan Tehreek-e-Insaf chairman Imran Khan most vocal critic of any military offensive has supported the idea of surgical strikes on Taliban. Mighty Pakistani army has also given its argument that with 150,000 troops already based in the tribal regions, it is prepared to begin a full-fledged clearing operation. Arguing that they really don’t have to start from scratch, and troops and aerial assets are already in place to begin a military campaign to confront this threat in Waziristan as well anywhere else considered. So, all these propositions support the option of major flush out military operation in North Waziristan. But another perspective should also be taken into account before rushing to any conclusion. Have we ever thought about why are the foreign forces leaving Afghanistan? Because after 12 years of fighting they recognized that they cannot win in Afghanistan. And what has been achieved by the operation Sunrise of Lal Masjid it only flared up the extremism. Likewise only the military operation in tribal areas of Pakistan can’t solve the problem of Taliban insurgency.

We should realize that now there is a deep division within the Taliban, between those who want a settlement with the government and others who are determined to continue fighting. As after the death of Hakimullah authority of central leadership of TTP has been undermined. Some observers have raised doubts about the influence of the central Taliban command and its ability to control all factions, now totalling around 32 in number including some who are opposed to negotiations. This has been evidenced by the persistent violence which highlights the inability of the Taliban's central leadership, which has agreed to hold negotiations, to control its fringe groups and enforce a temporary ceasefire. At one point of time negotiated ceasefire between the Pakistan state and TTP was almost agreed upon and was supposed to be announced in a day or two but suddenly a barbaric act of killing of 23 paramilitary personnel derailed the whole process. This act was just done to hamper the peace process by the group of Omer Khalid Khursani operating in Mohmand Agency and believed to be opposed to the talks.  Government should follow a carrot and stick policy to tackle with this kind of problem – the elements within the insurgency movement who want to talk to the government should be encouraged and the elements who are opposed to the peace talks should be targeted by the military action. State should bifurcate between the groups opposing and supporting the peace talks and then deal them accordingly.

Full fledge military operation against all the groups of TTP will only create dissatisfaction against the state and will strengthen the radicals in the movement and nobody knows that it can even result into a new wave of suicide attacks targeting military and civilian targets across the nation. Another military operation in the tribal areas would only create millions of more displaced when already millions of Pakistani IDP’s are living in camps without drinking water, sanitary arrangements, food provision and health care. Unfortunately, the issue of internally displaced persons was not tackled appropriately in the past when offensives were launched in FATA against militants. Learning a lesson from its past mistakes, the government must take concrete measures to avoid political, military and humanitarian crises in the country against the backdrop of a military operation in North Waziristan. Else the number of Taliban sympathizers will increase because of collateral damage in the operation.