Editor in Chief: Moh. Reza Huwaida Thursday, March 28th, 2024

Zero Option is not Impossible

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Zero Option is not Impossible

The conclusion of Brussels meeting last Thursday where foreign Minister Bismillah Mohammadi also participated ended with a clear message to Afghan government: zero military option is not a bluff but a reality unless a legal framework is created. NATO defense ministers said that the resolute support mission to train, advise and assist the Afghan security forces after 2014 required a legal framework. They noted the signature of the Bilateral Security Agreement between Washington and Kabul was a prerequisite for concluding a Status of Forces Agreement (SOFA) between NATO and Afghanistan, which is currently being negotiated. After the conclusion of the meeting, NATO Secretary General Anders Fogh Rasmussen said to journalists that they are focused on completing ISAF mission in Afghanistan. He said if the BSA was not signed, they could not conclude the SOFA agreement and without a necessary legal framework, there simply could not be a deployment after this year. “We are focused on completing ISAF mission, but we also need certainty and predictability to launch our new mission to train, advise and assist the Afghan forces after 2014,” he said. “Today we agreed the need to plan for all possible outcomes including the possibility that we may not be able to deploy to Afghanistan after 2014 due to the persistent delays we have seen," he told a news conference.

Despite deep fear about possible complete withdrawal, President Karzai and some of his consultants who indeed do not feel bad if the international community pull entirely out of the country, assume those statements as bluff. They think that international community have spent billions of dollars and lost thousands of soldiers and civilians. So, it is possible that they had made such a large sacrifice merely to hunt Osama bin Laden the main culprit behind 9/11. Washington could kill Osama bin Laden and his supporters through drone attacks inside Afghanistan. Indeed, such operation which is carried out presently across eastern border is highly effective as well as cheap.

Based on this concept, the huge investment as well as sacrifice of international community are made due to their own national interests of each respective countries. They are not here to support Afghans on account of humanity or humanitarian feelings. If they had such feelings they could resolve our chronic miseries and mounted pressure on countries which seek their benefits in damage of Afghanistan. Right after the withdrawal of USSR, the international community forgot about Afghanistan despite knowing about detrimental dangers of civil war. As a result, tens of thousands of people were killed and millions became refugees to different countries around the world, particularly neighboring countries under very eyes of international community. But no one budged because they had nothing to lose in the tragic civil war.

So, it was 9/11 that attracted the attention of international community of a growing threat to global peace and security. The fear from Al-Qaeda and its supporters along with each involved countries’ economic and strategic interests oblige them to stay in the country.

Based on the above assumption, President Karzai and part of his consultants concluded that the US may not leave the country at all cost. It needs to find a legal framework for the presence of its soldiers. If Kabul continues to resist against giving such a legal framework, the US has no option other than retreating and paying tribute.

But the ground reality is completely different. Washington officials believe that the US has already had done too much for Afghans. The Afghanistan war imposed billions of dollars on public budget which should otherwise be spent for economic growth inside the country. Unlike officials’ concept, the US does not look forward for making huge investment on natural resources of Afghanistan. The share of American companies are ignorable in biddings made during recent years. Indian, Chinese and some neighboring countries outrun United States in economic sphere.

Additionally, the support of Afghanistan war is in all time low among Americans. The public debt has increased tremendously which still hinders the economic recovery. The Bush time surplus does not exist anymore. Every year, amount is added to current public debt, the phenomenon that many economists warn about possible dangerous consequences. All these factors discourage Washington to persist for deeper engagement in the country that they have not much benefits.

Moreover, Washington clearly displayed that it cannot pay much for keeping soldiers in other countries. Iraq is a good example. It has far more strategic location than Afghanistan is the third country with the largest natural resources that play highly important role according to economic and political calculation. Indeed, it was the increase of Iraq oil the international community imposed deadly sanctions on Iran’s oil without injecting any chaos to global energy market. Meanwhile the US easily pulled out of the country when Baghdad did not agree to bestow legal impunity to American soldiers.

Therefore, President Karzai and his consultants should understand that zero option is not a bluff but a reality. And if it happens, it would put the country into utter disaster. Because the complete withdrawal will also put an end to international donations which provide majority of public budget.

Masood Korosh is the permanent writer of the Daily Outlook Afghanistan. He can be reached at outlookafghanistan@gmail.com

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