The possibility of Syrian regime punishment became serious after chemical attack in Damascus superb which has left more than 1.5 thousand people dead, including men, women and children. The horrific pictures and videos posted on internet reflect the ugliest face of ongoing crisis in the country. However, the Syrian government tried to say that chemical weapon was used by oppositions but countries are emphasizing that the regime of President has used because armed oppositions do not have any chemical weapon at disposal. And secondly the missile used for the attack support the notion because rebellions do not own such kinds of weapons.
On other hand, the Syrian regime has strongly rejected the allegation. It claims that weapon is used by rebellions in order to drag countries like US into war. In order to prove its status, the government allowed the UN monitoring team to pay a visit to the site. However, the team has completed its observation but has not released its findings. It is believed that Iran and Russia two close ally of President played active role in convincing the government for allowing the team to pay a visit. In addition, Iran officials have claimed that it put the Washington in contact about the transfer of chemical weapons into the Syria but it did not act. If such allegations appear right, it is possible that there are invisible hands that are trying to drag the US and its allies into Syrian war in order to put an end to regime’s life.
Amidst such confusion, there is one certain thing that chemical weapon was used in Damascus suburb whether it was by government or oppositions, we are in need of time to get certain; particularly after the UN investigation. Without such a certainty, military action will prove consequential.
The first and foremost thing would be United Nation’s mandate. American and some European officials strongly emphasize that they believe that the government utilized the chemical attack on civilians that should not go without response. Last week, the US openly said that despite no vote for military intervention by British Parliament the closest war ally of the country, US may interfere in the war. President Obama has clarified that even without United Nation’s mandate, he may order for punitive action against the Syrian regime that also amidst suspicion about the issue.
The UN Security agency may release its report. There are three possibilities: one, confirming the government is guilty; two, rebellions used and, thirdly, the issue may need further investigation. In the second and third possibilities, the situation will become far complicated than the first possibility which I think is more probable.
In the first possibility, the current approach and standing of US will be somehow supported. Meanwhile, it is unlikely that China and Russia raise their green cards for allowing the military intervention. They will try to block the move and highly possible to veto any military actions which will lead to weakening of President Assad’s regime. But the US may mount pressure on both countries and vice versa motivate many other countries to join it.
In spite of that the intervention will not get UNSC mandate which will terribly deal blow to prestige of the organization as countries may think that it does not have the sufficient power to prevent or commence war designed for the punishment of member government. The UNSC will be discredited in the global public view for failing to ensure permission against foreign intervention.
Similarly, it will be consequential for the United States. It is not 2001 and 2003 that the world leave under fear of terrorism and its supporters. The US waged two wars, both of them large and expansive.
However, it has pulled out its security forces from Iraq but in Afghanistan, it is still engaged in anti-insurgency struggle. Due to long periods of war in Afghanistan, the public opinion is increasingly turning against the country. The earlier sympathy sparked due to suicide bombing on twin towers does not exist anymore. It does not have the global opinion support to wage another war that also because of mere US standing. Because many American officials are just trying to punish Assad regime on account that it has crossed the red line set by Washington. If it does not attack, countries like Iran, for example, will get bolder pushing for its nuclear programs because the inactivity of USA may be interpreted as the weakness of the country. Unfortunately, American officials have not provided any other justifications for possible upcoming military action.
If it says that by punitive action, it wants to stop bloodshed then it is wrong. No one will accept because there is no reason to support the notion that such action will decrease the bloodshed. The only thing that gives legality to punishment of Assad regime is UN mandate which will not be given.
I fear that such attack will affect the war against insurgency in Afghanistan. After the video clips posted on internet, many people had commented on their timelines on Facebook that where was human rights and democracy? They were in view that US is guilty! I am sure intervention will not add to popularity of the US rather will be used as propaganda against it. In addition, what if Syria’s allies do not sit as silent observer. Instead they also take a counter measure which stuck the US into an unwanted mess? Considering such possibilities, the Afghanistan may again be marginalized as happened after attack on Iraq.