In the previous part of this article I explained how the supporters of President Assad support him to keep him in power in order to reach their own political and economic interests in the country. It was highlighted that supporters of President Assad are divided not on the basis of broad perspective but on the level of their support and price they are ready to pay. There are countries and organizations for which the collapse of the Syrian regime is a red line. The regime holds high importance to them because its collapse will deal detrimental blow to their existence and political influence. While some others support it in order to appear stronger in economic, political and military bargains in other parts of the world or due to lack of interests are not ready to pay the price that first category is ready. Meanwhile, it should be noticed that explained two scenarios in the previous part of this article are aimed to put an end to the ongoing crisis.
In this part of this article I want to deal with two other scenarios which are supported by supporters of the oppositions.
The third scenario which is supported by some Arab countries is based on the collapse of President Assad. This scenario indeed circulates over the notion that the regime has committed horrible crimes. It started to suppress its oppositions from the very start of uprising. Perhaps, if President Assad stepped aside, Syrians would not have suffered as they are now suffering---more than 100,000 dead and millions migrated to neighboring countries. In another word, he is blamed of crime against humanity and guilty for tens of death.
Such an issue has disqualified him to continue as a president. He lost the ground support. Thus, he should be toppled at all cost because he has no right to remain in power. Radical armed groups and many Arab countries indeed favor this scenario. From the very start, they developed their strategy on a Syria without Assad. This theory was largely strengthened with oust of Presidents of Tunisia, Egypt and Libya. The calculation was this that President Assad regime was doomed to the destiny of three other regimes.
Presently, with tumultuous situation in countries experienced the revolution of Arab Spring and the strong position of Syrian regime, the prospective for realization of this objectives looks blurred.
The fourth scenario for peace is empowerment of oppositions to a level that force the regime to strike a deal with them. President Assad frequently called armed opposition terrorists who are the stooges of Syria’s enemies. He rejected any call to sit with them and find a diplomatic solution to the problem. However, recently both sides pretend to hold peace talks but each side paid deaf ears to conditions of the other side or completely rejected. The earlier plan of Russia and US to bring together government and opposition, hoping to prevent bloodshed in the country, has now remained in the condition of uncertainty. The meeting was not held because both sides offered conditions that were not acceptable for the other side. Both sides are trying their best to appear from a stronger position thus intensifying struggle to capture large chunk of the country.
The supporters of this scenario have been pouring arms and combatants to ratchet up pressure on government. Meanwhile the some horrible activities of oppositions embarking to al-Qaeda like activities have caused western countries that generally were supporting this scenario to be more cautious.
Seemingly, the all four scenarios are not able to bring peace and stability to the country. All were somehow on the table during last 28 months long uprising in the country but nothing has been achieved in terms of peace and stability. The proxy war is not going to a give result. It can be claimed with the current approaches to Syrian crisis only deepen it and as the United Nations Secretary General Ban Ki-moon said the toll may rise to 200,000 people.
Meanwhile, many think that intensification of violence may end up to flow of terrorists and jihadist from across the globe. Without any effort and expense, they are going to kill each other and the world will get rid of them. But this notion will prove wrong. Almost similar scenario occurred in Afghanistan. Militia groups were finally defeated by Taliban militias with the support al-Qaeda.
Committing similar mistake will give similar result. No doubt both Sunni and Shiite extremists will kill each other in the Syrian battle ground. But their death and their ideology will not be engraved rather will be strengthened. No matter how many extremists will be killed, the war will continue with larger number joining both sides. People, who at normal time will not support violence but with intensification of war and spark of sense of revenge, will change to barbaric violent individuals. No need to detail about flipping any pages of the history shows that violence will not end to peace.
In addition, the Syrian crisis possesses characteristics that easily may spillover to rest of countries. As already its signs can be found in the sectarian violence in Iraq and sporadic clashes in some neighboring countries.
Thus, the only solution is that all stockholders give up the proxy war in the country. Not because of humanity and sympathy with millions of Syrians suffering from the crisis but due to their own interest should and accept that either side will not win the war. If even one side wins, a deeply divided society with highly feeble economic structures may not give its supporters what they are looking for.