The mandate of the present elected governments will expire on March 18th and the general elections will likely be held around 6th of May 2013 in Pakistan, however the incumbent PPP led-government alleges of conspiracy being hatched to set up an unconstitutional caretaker government for the next two to three years.
Pakistan’s many conspiracy theorists allege that Pakistan Tehreek-e-Insaf Chairman Imran Khan seems to be the only politician for whom the upcoming prime ministerial slot is getting prepared to get him rule over the country for the next at least five years.
The recent twin-blast in Quetta which claimed over 100 lives and long march of Tahirul Qadri in Islamabad are alleged to be the “two sides of the same coin” by several circles – orchestrated to boost Imran’s political image among Shia and Barelvi sects of Muslims.
Many believe that Imran’s political image was declining very fast among the voters of Shia and Barelvi sects of Muslims for his support to extreme religious parties especially Taliban that’s why the “two sides of the same coin” conspiracy theory came to the light.
In Pakistan, Barelvi sect of Muslims are believed to be in majority among 180 million population and Shia sect with nearly 15 million only in Punjab province will bring a difference to Imran in upcoming elections 2013.
Imran Khan was the first national leader who physically visited Quetta to express his solidarity with the Shia protestors which was being supported thoroughly by Shia community particularly civil society in Pakistan with the help of the national media.
Soon after the launch of Tahirul Qadri’s long march in Islamabad — Imran Khan held a press conference in which he not only supported Shia’s demand “targeted operation” against religious militants — to be the first of its kind from any political national leaders but also extended full support to Tahirul Qadri and termed his demands as the same of his own.
Imran Khan seems well aware of the votes based on religious sects in Pakistan, that’s why the last two major events were the best opportunity for him to win Barelvi and Shia votes, which he is believed to have played well at the front foot.
As regard the electoral constituencies of Pakistan, it seems very hard for Pakistan Tehreek-e-Insaf to secure a single national assembly seat from Balochistan and Sindh provinces in upcoming elections as the party doesn’t have a strong political footing in those provinces; however some independent candidates may likely bring some kind of favourable political position to PTI to form a government. Imran is also assumed to bag some seats from Khayber Pakhtoonkhwa province however his battle ground is believed to be the upper Punjab which has got over 100 seats in the national assembly of Pakistan. In upper Punjab, Barelvi and Shia voters are considered to bring a great deal of difference to Imran in upcoming elections to be held in the early week of May and all strings seem to have been pulled well together to get Imran in a favourable position in elections 2013.
Many believe that Imran Khan at age of 61 has got some charisma to attract young voters and seems to be the favourite politician of the ruling elites to replace all those politicians who they despise. However, it would be very difficult for Imran and the ruling class to bring a desirable “political change” in Pakistan after five years at the age of 66 so now it’s the best time to act properly.
In my previous article, some certain quarters’ concerns were reported regarding involvement of the ruling elite in deteriorating law and order situation in Pakistan because it seems not ready to work with Nawaz Sharif or tolerate another term of PPP along with the independent judiciary that’s why the country is being pushed either to emergency or to reschedule the elections to indefinite period soon after the establishment of interim government in Pakistan.
Many believe that if Imran gets around 75 seats out of the total 272 general national assembly seats then he is likely to be in a save position to form a government with the support of Pakistan Muslim League (Q), MQM, Jamat-e-Islami, FATA and Independent members.
However, some circles are of the opinion that if the ruling elite doesn’t believe in Imran Khan to secure at least 75 seats then it is likely to get the election postponed until and unless Imran gets the required seats to form the government or many conspiracy theorists suspect that it is the best time for the ruling class to get rid of the civil government as the new elected government with a decent mandate would be difficult to chuck out.