Afghanistan has a treacherous history. In 1839, Shah Shuja was appointed by the British as the ruler of Afghanistan and was assassinated soon after the colonial masters left. As the United States pulls out its troops from Afghanistan by the end of 2014, the Taliban and Al-Qaeda killing machine in Afghanistan is comprehensively capable of carrying out a few high-profile assassinations in Kabul, destabilizing the country and turning it into a jihadi safe-haven that it was before 9/11.

Let’s consider two hard facts in Afghanistan’s near future. First, the Taliban and other militant organisations, notably Hizb-e-Islami and Al-Qaeda, are not defeated. Al-Qaeda leader Ayman Al-Zawahiri and his lieutenants remain sheltered in Pakistan. No signs exist that the Taliban’s strength has diminished. A month ago, on December 13, they bombed a US military base in Kandahar soon after a visit by US Secretary of Defense Leon Panetta. Last August, an aircraft carrying General Martin Dempsey, chairman of the US Joint Chiefs of Staff, was damaged by a Taliban fire, though he was unhurt. Similar attacks have been carried out by the Taliban regularly, killing over 3,400 Afghan security-men last year alone. Currently, an estimated 20,000 terrorists roam across Afghanistan, a guerilla force large enough to destabilize the country.

Second, the US is hastening a near-total withdrawal of troops from Afghanistan by 2014. In fact, as Afghan President Hamid Karzai arrived in Washington on January 08, 2013 for talks, the US media’s singular concern was whether 10,000 or as low as 2,500 troops should remain in Afghanistan after 2014. The White House released feelers that it could withdraw all the troops. The US media debate is unconcerned about Afghanistan’s future, or about the current terrorist threat emanating from the Pak-Afghan border.

Amid the emerging security vacuum, the Taliban and their allies are planning tactical next steps, but it is pertinent here to first consider two positive enforcers of stability in Afghanistan and whether these are sustainable. One, due to the US military engagement with Afghanistan for 11 years, the Afghan National Army (ANA) has emerged as a respected organization, providing legitimacy to the government and creating hope for political stability in the country. The number of Afghan soldiers and policemen has grown to about 330,000. Increasingly, the Afghan National Security Forces (ANSF) are carrying out counter terror operations. Steadily, they are taking over security responsibilities in 23 of 34 provinces. Their combat readiness will be at risk without US air support, or without help from allies like India to provide helicopters and other logistics.

Two, the Afghan parliament has emerged as a credible institution, with lawmakers frequently holding the government accountable. However, Afghanistan’s stability is threatened by several factors, including a lack of revenue to run the government, a likely failure to hold 2014 elections on time and an inability of the Afghan security forces to sustain financially and without US air support. The US military aid to Afghanistan past 2014 is vital, as the cost of sustaining the ANSF is projected at $4.1 billion a year, twice the Afghan government’s annual revenue, wrote journalist Rajiv Chandrasekaran recently.

Ahead of the US exit, the Taliban’s military strategy involves suicide bombings on key institutions, roadside bomb blasts, recruiting sympathizers in ANSF, and so on. Politically, there are three levels of talks involving the militants. First, the Taliban have held talks with US officials in recent years which they have dubbed as ‘contacts’ aimed at prisoner exchange, as a US soldier is in their captivity. Last year, when the Taliban opened an office in Qatar after the US released their prisoners from Guantanamo, they noted that they are in a pre-negotiations stage with the US, not negotiating the political future of Afghanistan. Second, the Taliban sent two envoys last month to Chantilly, France, to hold talks with representatives of Afghan government and Hizb-e-Islami. In Chantilly, they made clear that they would not accept the current Afghan constitution for a political settlement.

Third, several contacts involving Afghanistan, Pakistan and the Taliban took place recently. Afghanistan’s High Peace Council, tasked to hold talks with militant groups, visited Islamabad on November 14, 2012 and a week later Pakistan Army Chief General Ashfaq Kayani was in Kabul to ink a border security pact. Soon, Afghan foreign minister Zalmai Rassoul arrived in Islamabad to talk to his Pakistani counterpart Hina Rabbani Khar, who subsequently flew to Brussels to meet US secretary of state Hillary Clinton. This flurry of talks within a month and Pakistan’s release of top Taliban prisoners point to a new understanding involving Pakistan and the Taliban, but it remains to be seen how it will impact on government formation in Kabul in 2014. At present, these talks appear to be tactical moves by the Taliban.

At the end of Karzai’s January 8-11 visit, President Barack Obama announced that by March the US will begin taking up a “support role” as the ANSF assume operational lead, but he did not declare the size of troops past 2014. If the US decides to keep only 2,500 troops in Afghanistan, it can secure just a few military bases, possibly at Bagram and Kandahar, leaving a vast swathe of southern and south-eastern Afghanistan unprotected. In this region, the Taliban have a strong presence, and their ability to survive as a guerrilla terrorist force in the mountainous terrain will remain unchallenged through the next decade.

The Afghan Taliban could be seen triumphant in 2014 and will certainly be aided by Al-Qaeda. The Taliban also plan to broaden their jihadi battlefield from Afghanistan through Pakistan to Kashmir and India, as stated by TTP commander Waliur Rehman in a January 06, 2013 video, an objective that the Pakistani intelligence shares. TTP emir Hakimullah Mehsud, speaking alongside Waliur Rehman, warned that the TTP is an international organization and offered support to militant groups in Arab countries. Mullah Omar is the leader not only of Afghan Taliban but also of Al-Qaeda and the Pakistani Taliban, Mehsud stated, warning that after 2014 Omar’s policies will define their jihadi objectives.