Editor in Chief: Moh. Reza Huwaida Thursday, March 28th, 2024

Rahmani’s Murder and Third Phase of Transition

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Rahmani’s Murder and Third Phase of Transition

High Peace Council (HPC) faced another setback on May 13, 2012, when one of its most senior members Arsala Rahmani was shot dead in Kabul. He was also a sitting member of Senate. According to the reports, he was shot at about 9:30 am, when he was on his way to parliament. Kabul crime branch chief, Brig. Gen. Mohammad Zahir said that he was shot with a pistol that had a silencer, as his driver could not immediately come to know that he was shot. The incident is really tragic and raises concerns regarding the growing terrorism in the capital.

It, at the same time, shows that the enemies of Afghanistan are not in any mood for peace. Last year, the HPC's chief Burhan ud din Rabbani was also assassinated by a suicide bomber, who was disguised as a representative of Taliban. Last month Burhan ud din Rabbani's son, Sallah ud Rabbani took charge as the new chief of the Council. Though the role of HPC has been controversial as it has not been able to achieve much regarding negotiations related to reconciliation process, this incident will further hamper its functioning.

HPC was established in 2010 by President Hamid Karzai to negotiate with Taliban and lead the reconciliation process; however, the Council has not been able to gain much in that regard and at the moment Taliban have discontinued any sort of negotiations with the Afghan government.

Instead they have continued their aggressive attitude and have recently announced their Spring Offensive; in which they had even mentioned that they would target the members of HPC. However, they have not taken the responsibility for the killing of Rahmani. "The Mujahideen of the Islamic Emirate have no hand in his assassination," said Zabihullah Mujahid, a Taliban spokesman, using the group's official name. "We deny any kind of involvement."

Moreover, Rahmani was previously a part of Taliban regime – he was the deputy higher education minister. A political analyst, Mohammad Hassan Haqyar, suggesting the same has said, "Rahmani was not against the Taliban, so he would not be killed by them," The International Security Assistance Force (ISAF), has mentioned, "A possible aim of this attack is to intimidate those who, like Rahmani, want to help make Afghanistan a better place for its citizens and the region… This attack is clear evidence that those who oppose the legitimate government of Afghanistan have absolutely no interest in supporting the peace process on any level but through murder, thuggery and intimidation."

With the reconciliation process in complete disarray and the prospects of peace very much ambiguous, these sorts of blows to the Council or to Afghan government can further raise concerns about the future of the country. On the other hand the negotiation efforts that were set by US in Qatar are also facing a deadlock. While the situation of peace and tranquility seems to be deteriorating. The international troops are more inclined to making hasty withdrawal and by 2014 all the ISAF troops may withdraw from the country.

To add to the miseries, the political situation is not very much stable and there are worries about the 2014 elections as well. The opposition parties, minority groups, civil society members and women are deeply concerned about their rights and fear that the developments may be reversed after the international troops withdraw.
With the news of death of Rahmani and the growing uncertainties regarding the future state of affairs, there is the news of the announcement of third phase of security transition.

According to reports, Kapisa, Uruzgan and Parwan provinces are part of third phase of security transition, while work on the fourth and fifth phases has been asked to be started. The spokesperson for the Afghan President, Aimal Faizi said, "The transition commission was ordered to start the process of fourth and fifth phases of transition, the fourth and fifth phases will focus on the bordering districts."

"Security has been taken into serious consideration, but we have serious problem in governance, economic and justice sectors," head of Afghan transition commission added. However, it should be noted that security is still primary concern. It is not difficult to complete the transition process and transfer the responsibilities to Afghan forces, the difficult aspect is to maintain peace and overcome the security challenges that may arise with each passing day. The professionalism and conduct of Afghan forces are still questioned by many international organizations, and national and international analysts.

It would be really difficult for Afghan forces to shoulder the responsibility of the entire country by and after 2014 without much support from the international community. At the moment, the international troops are facing threats while cooperating with their Afghan counter-parts. Every day, there are pieces of news, revealing "green on blue" attacks, which show the widening gap between the forces. In one of the most recent of such attacks two British troops were killed in southern Afghanistan by two alleged Afghan police officers.

In addition, Afghanistan would be in need of large sum of money to keep its forces functioning appropriately. Nonetheless, there are not clear indications on how Afghanistan will arrange for the sum. NATO has not yet come up with a clear decision regarding funding Afghan forces; neither has the current Afghan-US strategic agreement has mentioned anything in that regard. There are hopes that the upcoming Chicago Summit may determine the nature of support and funding for Afghan forces to a certain extent and it will also decide the future of the transition process, but it seems very difficult for a single summit to nullify all the concerns that are overshadowing the prospects of peace in Afghanistan.

With the growing insurgency in Afghanistan's highly guarded places and against VIP's, it is difficult to see that the ongoing transition will yield very positive results. There is no doubt that ultimately, Afghan forces have to shoulder the responsibility of the country on their own but it should be noted that transition should be made careful and at the same time the other pre-requisites for peace and stability, like reconciliation process, reintegration of Afghan society, amendments in political system and good governance must also be given due consideration and dedication; otherwise, peace and tranquility will just remain a dream for Afghan society.

Dilawar Sherzai is the permanent writer of the Daily outlook Afghanistan. He can be reached at dilawar.sherzai@gmail.com

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