Editor in Chief: Moh. Reza Huwaida Friday, April 19th, 2024

Hopes and Realities Regarding Post 2014 Afghanistan

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Hopes and Realities Regarding Post 2014 Afghanistan

Concerns are mounting regarding the future in Afghanistan, mostly regarding the years after the withdrawal of international troops in 2014. At the same time the promises by international community that Afghanistan will not be left alone are also increasing. However, it is interesting to note that the steps that are being taken show that the intentions are not in accordance to the promises being made. In the NATO meeting in Brussels, there have been indications that the NATO members are reaching to some sort of consent regarding their role in Afghanistan after the withdrawal of international troops; nevertheless, there have been unilateral decisions by some countries to withdraw their troops before the deadline that was previously announced.

If there is an agreement among the NATO members, what is the reality of these unilateral decisions? Australian Prime Minister, Julia Gillard, on Tuesday, April 17, announced that most of Australian forces will withdraw within the 2013, which is a year earlier than the scheduled date. Following the Australian footprints, New Zealand announced on Wednesday, April 18, that it may withdraw its troops before 2014. There are around 140 Kiwi soldiers in Bamiyan province of Afghanistan.

Though the number of the troops is not very large and the impact on the security situation may not be very intense, the decision clearly depicts that the involved countries are in a hurry to withdraw their forces from Afghanistan; even without the consent of NATO, which is an indication that the differences of opinion and strategy within the NATO members regarding the future of Afghanistan are already very much clear.

Given that there are unanimous decisions being made, NATO's Secretary General Anders Fogh Rasmussen seemed very much confident in NATO's meeting in Brussels regarding a unanimous decision by NATO on the future strategy in Afghanistan. He said that he saw an emerging agreement among the alliance's members on what role they would play in Afghanistan once that country's forces take charge of security by 2015. He added that a number of member states had already pledged the size of their financial contributions to help the Afghan government maintain security forces after 2014.

However, these confirmations do not seem sufficient enough to decrease the concerns regarding the so called "End Game" in Afghanistan. There are evident indications of deterioration of peace and stability in Afghanistan and growth of ambiguity regarding the ongoing transition period and reconciliation process. No major achievement has been made in the talks with Taliban and the doubts about the Afghan forces to bear the responsibility of entire country on their own are very much serious.

Even some of the major decisions remain unattended. The strategic deal with US and a comprehensive strategy to deal with corruption within Afghan society, the future of political setup and the concerns of minority groups in the country, The approaching elections and the capability of Afghan government to provide good governance – all remain undecided and show a very serious state of affairs but there is not enough seriousness to counter the scenario.

One of the most important meetings regarding the future course of action in Afghanistan is the NATO summit in May this year in Chicago. There are hopes that this meeting is going to provide a clear idea of how International Security Assistance Force (ISAF) will develop its transition strategy and how will the NATO members assist Afghanistan after 2014 when the transition process is completed. Rasmussen has mentioned, "We are just one month away from our Chicago summit.

So this is the time to make sure our preparations are on track as we enter the final stretch." However, it should be mentioned here that the preparations are not yet finalized and there is not enough time left. US wants to sign the strategic deal with Afghan government before the summit but there is no indication from President Hamid Karzai that he would let US realize its hope.

Moreover, there were expectations that reconciliation process with Taliban would reach to a certain point when the summit starts but it stands at "zero" as Taliban have stopped the dialogues with US and Afghan government. It is really difficult to expect something extra-ordinary from the Chicago summit if more determined and serious efforts are not carried out immediately.

It is difficult not to say that the prospects of peace and tranquility within Afghan society are not very much encouraging. After the withdrawal of international troops, which will be made earlier, the country will face serious threats of instability and chaos. If the regional countries decide to go with the policy of interference in the country, the situation may get worse. ISAF's top commander in Afghanistan, Gen. John Allen has recently tried to compensate for what is going on.

Talking to media in Brussels on Tuesday, April 17, He said, "It is my clear message for the countries of the region, militants and Afghans that we will never leave Afghanistan alone and would provide any kind of assistance and support for the country." He also mentioned that the aim of signing the strategic cooperation agreement between the US and Afghanistan was not to leave Afghans alone beyond 2014. By the end of 2014, the number of Afghan security personnel would reach 352,000 soldiers and they would be well-trained and equipped to face any kind of security challenges.

However, many would doubt the quality of "well-trained and equipped" soldiers, if not the quantity. Talking about the spirit of Afghan forces to guard their country on their own he cited his meeting with two of Afghan policemen wounded in recent attacks in Kabul, "Yesterday, I visited two Afghan injured police of the special unit in Kabul. I offered him assistance but he replied that there was no need for my assistance. He said he only wanted to be healed to serve the people of country."

Definitely, the spirit shown by soldiers are worth appreciation, however, it must not be forgotten that the spirit alone will not take Afghan society to stability and prosperity. Along with spirit, it is necessary that the objective conditions should be analyzed properly. The strengths and weaknesses of the society and society members must be gauged and proper steps should be carried out for improvement. Otherwise, time may prove to be very cruel.

Dilawar Sherzai is the permanent writer of the Daily outlook Afghanistan. He can be reached at dilawar.sherzai@gmail.com

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