Editor in Chief: Moh. Reza Huwaida Friday, March 29th, 2024

The Syrian Situation is Gruesomely Dangerous

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The Syrian Situation is Gruesomely Dangerous

The situation in Syria has become unspeakably awful as violence and bloodsheds continue unabated. Cities where oppositions are active come under severe attacks. Restive cities have come under severe firings by Syrian security forces to suppress army defectors and oppositions who now have held arms to make the, so-called, Arab spring succeed. There are reports of high civilian casualties stuck in the crossfire, and just within past few days more than two hundred people were killed. On Sunday, 130 people lost lives as the result of armed struggle.

Yet no solution appears in the near future. The regional controversy has complicated the situation. There is no plan to end violence and bloodshed in short-term. According to United Nations' report around 9 thousand people have been killed by Mr. Bashar-al-Assad's regime during a year since for the first time the breeze of democracy hit the pillars of authoritarian regime in Syria. International community is sharply divided over the issue. They have their own considerations and interests, perhaps least concerned about high civilians killed on the account of holding demonstration for economic and political reforms and changes.

It is far likely that the United Nations Security Council be able to pass a tough resolution like that of Libya according to which many countries found the opportunity to intervene and continue armed rebellions. No doubt, though the principle aim of no-fly zone over Libya was merely for civilian protection, but the resolution provided justification for many to export weapons and armed rebellions to end the life of Moammar Gaddafi's regime as soon as possible.

Similarly, many countries supporting oppositions were always pushing for tough and severe resolutions in the UNSC, but the efforts failed bluntly. Drafts prepared by western countries in alliance with Arab League last year was vetoed in the United Nations Security Council by China and Russia, according to which President Bashar-al-Assad was demanded to halt violence.

It was largely because Moscow and Beijing were worried about the consequence of such type of resolution. They fear that if President Assad does not yield, then a foreign military intervention would be justified on the basis of such resolution. But it should be noticed that there are no strong willing for military intervention due to irritating experience in Libya where supporters of oppositions stuck for months.

Anyhow, After the failure of efforts through United Nations Security Council, eyes rolled back to Arab countries some of whom who suffer similar problem in their very homes.
The division in the UNSC is a in a deadlock and international community has no idea how to deal with the Syrian issue now.

In December, last year, Arab League, as part of bilateral agreement, sent a monitoring group to Syria to observe the situation and report whether the regime had put in practice its commitments and promises or not. After the expiry of the mandate, the League members asked President Assad to step down and hand over power to one of his deputy and build a national coalition government, which was strongly rejected by the regime on the basis of direct foreign interference into its domestic affairs. As a result, the League suspended the monitoring mission.

In another initiative aimed to ratchet up pressure, Arab League suspended Syria's membership last year after they found Damascus government evasive to put on the ground League's peace plan. But Damascus in response blamed them of hurried reaction and claimed that the plan took time to be implemented. Finally the League's monitors are allowed to come to the country and assess the ground situation and make sure that the regime is exercising the peace plan.

Two things indeed complicate the situation there. The first one is the international sharp division, as in noticed before. And the second thing is regional rivalry.
In the first case, two times the drafts were prepared, once by some western countries and secondly by western countries in alliance with Arab countries, and they were vetoed by Russia and China on the basis of fearing that Libya scenario should not be repeated in Syria. Therefore, it is hardly possible to pass a resolution which paves the way for foreign military intervention.

In the second case, Syria is a country which is a strategic support to regional countries. For Islamic Republic of Iran, Hezbollah of Lebanon, Hamas of Palestine and, perhaps, Iraq current Damascus regime is highly important; while its Arab fellows prefer much to end the regime of Bashar-al-Assad.

Syria is ruled by Alawis, which is far similar to Shiite religion. And, thus, there are people assessing the relation between Tehran and Damascus due to their religious similarities. No doubt, Iran has tried to be recognized as regional power and has a close relation with Assad's regime. Therefore, since the start of civil uprising, Tehran has never retreated from its stance against Syrian rebellion and links unrest there to western countries propaganda and intervention. Syria has strategic importance to Iran.

It provides a safe and secure way to Hezbollah of Lebanon which largely depends on financial and military support of both countries. Losing a friend of such an importance can potentially endanger the stance of Hezbollah and affect the regional status of political and strategic Tehran.

Moreover, in civil uprising, through efforts of the regime, the sectarian line has become revealed more than ever. Alawis have generally kept silence against government violence. This phenomenon has drugged Sunni Arab countries into the country. Saudi Arabia is leading this wing and tries to mount pressure on Assad to yield to protestors demands. Now these two regional wings try their most to get maximum benefits or interest out of current controversies.

Though it is possible that if he steps down, Islamic groups would take power, but that has blurred prospective and has caused international community to keep its mouth shut. Western countries, on top, US have been criticizing Damascus for severe crackdown of peaceful protestors.

Presently, after the failure of peace plan of Kofi Anan the former chief of United Nations, the situation has turned gruesomely dangerous. In the short-term prospective, tension may intensify. As a result, unfortunately, the Arab Spring's cost increases.

Shoaib Korosh is an independent writer. He can be reached at murtaza_ali2007@yahoo.com

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