Editor in Chief: Moh. Reza Huwaida Friday, April 26th, 2024

Concerns about the 2014 Elections

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Concerns about  the 2014 Elections

The future of peace and tranquility within Afghan society remains ambiguous and it is also affecting the confidence of the people regarding the important development processes. Security situation can play a very vital role in Afghan's socio-political scenario. Afghan authorities along with Western allies have to guarantee the country's security before the withdrawal process is completed otherwise it would be very difficult for the country to attain stability and discourage terrorism.

It is believed by serious minds that the security of the country is largely dependent on the nature of the reconciliation process that is going on in the country and the political evolution that may take place. Even if some sort of reconciliation is made, the country may not be able to achieve its objective of being reintegrated unless political evolution is supported through proper political amendments.

Afghanistan's political system at the moment requires many amendments before it can compensate for the multi-ethnic and diverse nature of Afghan society. Though there are many processes that are necessary for the political development in Afghanistan, the 2014 elections is going to play a very vital role.

What will be the nature of the elections and how it is going to be conducted will to a large extent decide the future of political setup in Afghanistan. Elections have very decisive role in the democratic political systems. The regularity and transparency of elections provide a strong foundation to the pillars of democracy.

Unfortunately, the political system of Islamic Republic of Afghanistan has certain disadvantages in this regard. There have not been a very rich history of regular elections in Afghanistan and the ones that have been carried out have not been comprehensive enough.

The last of the elections – the Afghan presidential and provincial council elections held on August 20, 2009, were widely characterized as marred by lack of security, violence, extremely low voter turnout, and widespread ballot stuffing, intimidation, and other electoral fraud. 

A total of 2,800 complaints were received by the Election Complaints Commission (ECC), with the largest proportion concerning indiscretion at the poll, which included ballot box stuffing and voter intimidation. The New York Times wrote, "Fraud was so pervasive that nearly a quarter of all votes were thrown out."

By looking at what has happened so far regarding elections, it is not difficult to foresee the 2014 elections. But currently the greatest of all the concerns is whether the elections will be conducted as per the schedule. Regularity plays a key role in the overall impact of election process; however, some key figures in Afghan and international politics seem to doubt whether the upcoming elections will be conducted on time.

The doubts have appeared mostly because of the intersection of the deadline of international troop's withdrawal and the election schedule. There are many who doubt that Afghan security forces will be able to shoulder the security responsibilities and will, as a result, provide ready ground for elections.

A former presidential chief of staff, Omar Daudzai who is also one of the intimates of President Karzai, has said, "We have no choice but to make progress on the peace effort. Under the current circumstances or even under a worse situation if the Taliban's presence becomes more dominant, they will intimidate people from coming out to vote.

If a significant proportion of the population can't come out to vote, you can't have an election. No election commission will take the risk… If we make progress on the peace front quite a sizeable number of them will stand for election… If we manage to bring some Taliban leaders into electioneering that will mean that instead of preventing people to vote they will actually encourage them." However, at the moment there are very bleak prospects of the reconciliation process with Taliban.

So it means that the security situation may not improve too much by 2014. Talking about some urgency in the elections so that it may not intersect with the withdrawal deadline, the outgoing British ambassador to Kabul, William Patey has remarked, "I've heard people talk about that, we wouldn't have any objections to it … all we want is a free and fair election… There are perfectly good arguments why 2013 would be a good time … [but] by holding it in 2013 you risk an argument that foreigners brought it forward so they can control it."

Moreover, it is not likely that Afghan Presidential office may favor such urgency - though there are possibilities that it may be in the favor of extending the date. President Karzai's spokesperson seems committed as he says, "We strongly reject allegations that the president wants to delay the elections.

The Afghan government will try its best to make sure the elections happen on time according to the constitution," but who does not know about the commitments that are made by the Presidential office. Moreover, Afghan government must also make sure that the elections have to be better this time as per the requirements of political evolution. Conducting inappropriate and insufficient elections would not be much difficult but would certainly give rise to many difficulties within Afghan political system.

It is as clear as crystal that Afghan political system needs regular free and fair elections. So, the Afghan authorities must make sure and the Western allies must put pressure and provide assistant that the 2014 elections must be held on time and must not have the drawbacks that were present in 2009 Presidential elections.

It must be made sure that improvements are brought in the polling systems that can help the people of Afghanistan participate without complications in the elections and have their true representatives in parliament. Moreover, there are margins of improvements in the arbitration system and voter registrations.

Government has to bring more innovations in this regard and make sure that maximum number of people participates in elections. Above all, the rampant corruption must not be allowed by the Afghan government (which seems very much improbable) and the supporting countries and organizations to ruin the elections.

Dilawar Sherzai is the permanent writer of the Daily outlook Afghanistan. He can be reached at dilawar.sherzai@gmail.com

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