Editor in Chief: Moh. Reza Huwaida Friday, March 29th, 2024

Pakistan and the U.S. Re-Engage Again

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Pakistan and the U.S. Re-Engage Again

Relations between Pakistan and the U.S. have nosedived in recent months particularly after the incident in November of last year when the coalition forces stationed on the Afghan soil attacked Pakistani military outposts on the border killing tens of Pakistani military personnel. The souring of relations between the two uneasy allies in the War on Terror has had a powerful impact on the U.S.-led war inside Afghanistan.

The supply routes from Pakistan into Afghanistan for the NATO-led coalition remains closed ever since. More important than this, however, is Pakistani military's boosted "defiance" of the American strategic goals in Afghanistan in particular and in the region in general.

Cooperation between the two sides on the issue of talks with Taliban and Haqqani group has been patchy and uneasy at best. Although Pakistan and its military have at times been working in tandem with the CIA and the Department of the State helping them to reach out to the critical members of these groups, it has always watched out for maintaining a significant degree of leverage in the overall process.

However, the thick ice that has blurred the relations since November is slowly melting away with what happened last week during the Seoul Nuclear Security Summit. President Barack Obama sought to re-engage Pakistan and the exchanges between him and the Pakistani Prime Minister, Yusuf Gilani were significant.

This was followed by the visit of the chief of U.S. Central Command, James Mattis, and John Allen, the commander of international forces in Afghanistan to Rawalpindi where they followed on the previous exchanges regarding the possibility of reopening the blocked supply routes.

The U.S. here is desperate to have the routes re-opened. The Pakistani military has given out indications that it has indeed obliged. It is a matter of when and depends on the progress the two sides make in formulating a quid pro quo whereby the Pakistani military can extract worthwhile concessions.

As a piece in the Express Tribune vividly laid out a picture of the situation, the quid pro quo Pakistan demands might very well be granted by the U.S. and there are already many indications to this effect. The Pakistani military might indeed be allowed to have a more direct say in where, how and when the drone strikes in the tribal areas are conducted.

Furthermore, the Pakistani (military) will be given more space in terms of its ability to maneuver its way out of the embarrassing and difficult conditions when the drone strikes cause public uproar as it has happened repeatedly before. Interestingly enough, in Pakistan, there seems to be an all-party consensus forming on the issue of relations with the U.S. Many hardliners, who never missed the chance to beat on the drum of America bashing, are slowly climbing down the high horse and showing some measure of flexibility.

The change in positions is more noticeable in such high-profile opposition parties such as the Pakistan Muslim League (N) led by the former Prime Minister Nawaz Sharif. It is interesting to see how the nerves are being calmed and the grounds are being prepared for a new turning point in Pakistan-U.S. relations.

In addition to these tactical gains that Pakistan is seeking, it is indeed after extracting strategic concessions relating to the war in Afghanistan. Pakistan is still deeply suspicious of the U.S. motives in Afghanistan and no matter what assurances it has received and continues to receive from the U.S., it cannot do away with this deep-seated sense of suspicion.

Generals in Rawalpindi remain convinced that their approach is the right one. The U.S. has time and again found it out the hard way that it would not stand much chance of finding its way out of the maze of Af-Pak without some measure of help from Pakistan and its resourceful military.

For a brief period, those in charge of negotiation in the CIA and the State Department believed bypassing Pakistan is not only a practical idea but also a major boost to the American regional agenda. With Pakistan masterly pulling the events in other directions, the Americans had to admit that the way surely goes through Rawalpindi.

As discussed, a string of high-profile visits to Pakistan by top American officials has been ongoing and more would be on the cards. This is more significant in the lead-up to the NATO summit in Chicago in May that will see the situation in the Af-Pak region high on the agenda.

As the time goes by and drawdown of coalition troops stationed in Afghanistan accelerates, the U.S. will find itself under greater pressure to push ahead with the talks with the Taliban towards securing a deal. After the Chicago NATO Summit in May, we are going to see much heightened American activism with regard to the talks.

No matter the odds loaded against the possibility of any lasting deal with the Taliban (a recent International Crisis Group paints a realistic picture of the situation), the U.S. would still be bent on working towards a deal. For it to be able to meet the 2014 deadline, bringing about a measure of stability or a semblance of it is crucial.

The U.S. has finally agreed to release a number of high-profile former Taliban officials out of the Guantanamo Bay detention center. This is a given and sooner or later we are going to see more former Talibs let out. Without that, there would be no confidence built between the two sides.

The situation has become much more complex after the Hekmatyar-led Hizb-i-Islami has announced that it quits the talks with the government of Afghanistan. A statement by it says that neither the government nor the U.S. have any "practical approach" in the talks.

With the deadline of2014 approaching and the talks in bad shape, we can expect that the desperation on the part of the U.S. and the government of Afghanistan to reach out to the insurgent groups will only grow. As their desperation mounts, so does the confidence and sense of optimism that the Taliban and the Hizbi-Islami harbor in relation to a post-2014 Afghanistan.

The author is the permanent writer of the Daily Outlook Afghanistan. He can be reached at outlook afghanistan@gmail.com

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