One of the most formidable challenges ahead of Afghanistan of today is to consolidate its nascent democracy while preserving and further building on the achievements of the past one decade. This is no easy challenge as Afghanistan continues to be heavily dependent on the assistance provided by the international community. Over the past one decade, unfortunately, massive international funding and aid in both cash and kind, while helping the country a great deal, have led to the emergence of a culture of dependence and reliance on foreigners and others.
This is apparent in the fact that the government of Afghanistan and its various ministries have been able to spend no more than 40% of the annual development budget approved by the government and entirely funded by the international community. Low capacity in policy implementation and execution still plague Afghanistan's bureaucratic machinery and very little has changed over the past one decade.
Therefore, the challenges that confront Afghanistan are not only political and economic but also bureaucratic. The country's public administration system and its vast bureaucracy are still underperforming and with this situation, it is difficult to see any major improvement in the a few years remaining until 2014.
The challenges ahead of Afghanistan remain extremely complex and, to be certain, the government of Afghanistan alone would not be able to resolve these challenges single-handedly but would require active contribution from the international community. In the areas of economy, security, bureaucracy and service-delivery, governance and politics, Afghanistan, right now needs to take stock of the situation and act proactively before it would be too late.
Above all, it is the responsibility of the country's national leadership, the president of the country, his cabinet and the national parliament to set the stage for working proactively to resolve these range of challenges and problems. In the area of politics and the country's political system, successfully completing the transition phase into 2014 is in itself a major challenge.
The country faces a presidential election in 2014. It is expected that the current president, Hamid Karzai, will vacate the seat of the presidency to a new face in 2014. Successfully conducting a nation-wide presidential election amid a climate of worsening security situation is itself difficult – more so for a government in Kabul that, in previous elections, has shown that its record has been controversial.
More than holding an election process, holding it in a free and fair manner and ensuring such an outcome are other formidable challenges. On top of this, what is yet more difficult would be conducting the election in such a way that the legitimacy of the new president and the new government could be ensured in the eyes of the Afghan people.
If the elections cannot lend sufficient legitimacy to the new president and the new government, being stuck for 5 years after 2014 with a president that still has a serious legitimacy problem would further complicate Afghanistan's challenges. Preventing a power vacuum in Kabul in the period after the 2014 elections is a real and grave challenge – one that if not handled well, could open the floodgates of new problems and challenges for Afghanistan.
Afghanistan's political and security challenges are intimately correlated with the outcome of the so-called peace process and the ongoing talks with the Taliban. Unfortunately, as I have maintained in my previous articles, the possibility is strong that the Taliban insurgency may drag on for many more years since the ongoing talks within such a framework, evidently, cannot bring about a final and comprehensive resolution of the Afghan conflict.
The challenge in front of the government of Afghanistan and its political and military leadership would be to prepare for a long-drawn war and conflict that would last for many more years after 2014. Under such circumstances and when the country would remain in the throes of instability and conflict, economic and political development would take the beating.
Under the conditions of war and instability, Afghanistan's developmental projects would remain under-funded and largely abandoned. As I have said earlier, between development and lingering instability Afghanistan should choose one. The fact is that Afghanistan, in actuality, cannot make a choice; its hands remain tied, the future still uncertain and continued instability gradually becoming a guaranteed future of Afghanistan.
As if these grave challenges are not enough, Afghanistan also faces the challenge of developing and consolidating a befitting political and administrative system – one that can deliver 'good governance' and be commensurate with the real needs of the country, aspirations of its diverse people and one that can ensure stability, reduction in over-centralization of power and authority, and also meaningfully empower its diverse people and communities. A reform or, better to say, a revamp of the state in Afghanistan is an absolute necessity. Without it there can be no end to instability and the lingering crisis situation in Afghanistan.
A culture of accountability and answerability needs to be built into the current ailing and corrupt system. For this, the reform must start from the country's highest leadership positions. For the system to be purged and cleansed, enough and substantive political will must be mustered and this would remain impossible until the national leadership sets aside acting out of political expediency and considerations and do not prioritize upholding of the rule of law as the over-arching objective.
These are the different strata of the challenges that Afghanistan faces. On every level and after crossing every threshold, a new and different challenge awaits Afghanistan. Overcoming all these is a must for Afghanistan if it is to be salvaged and rescued from its current status of a failed state.
The bitter fact is that it is still indeed a failed state and would continue to be so unless it puts its act together and meaningfully address this range of problems and challenges, which still remains to be seen. Whether Afghanistan will be able to juggle and simultaneously address this wide range of issues, problems and challenges is an open question. Its track record has so far been disappointing. But the hope is that with the deadline of 2014 approaching, it will bring about a new impetus on the part of the national leadership to more seriously walk towards at least a part of these objectives.