A glimpse at the prospects of socio-political sce nario in Afghanistan gives rise to both concerns and ambiguities. There are many who worry about the security in the country and think that Taliban may return to get the control of the country after the international troops withdraw from the country. However, the current discussions and ideas by political analysts depict that it would not be an easy task for Taliban to get hold of the country or even a considerable portion of it and they doubt the return of Taliban as a tower of strength.

More than ten years of war, supported by billion of dollar and modern warfare technology against Taliban have weakened them to a great extent. They from open war now depend on suicide attacks and target killings, which a clear evidence of their deteriorating strength.

It would be better to have a look at some of the statements making their place in news nowadays; Waheed Mujdha, an expert on Taliban, has, in this regard, mentioned, "When they (Taliban) ruled before, many people had fled Afghanistan. There was no young generation.

Without much fighting, they captured 90 percent of Afghanistan. But now the situation has completely changed… They accept that the time has changed. They accept that it's impossible for one party to capture all Afghanistan and rule all over Afghanistan."

In the same regard, the statement of Pakistani security analyst, Imtiaz Gul, says, "The government (Afghan government) is very fragile but we have to keep in mind it is supported by a 250,000 strong security apparatus… which is also supported by the international community and these two big elements were missing when the Taliban seized the country in the mid-90's." There are many others who believe that Taliban will not return to the country with the same might it used to have.

There are indications from Taliban as well that they would like to end the conflict through some sort of negotiation. Taliban have recently shown some interest in the reconciliation process and they have started looking at the Qatar office in order to resolve their issues with US and Afghan government.

Few days earlier a report suggested that Mullah Omar, the Taliban commander, had written a letter to US President Obama in order to initiate a negotiation with Taliban to end the conflict. Though it has not been verified whether the letter was really written by Mullah Omar, there have been indications that Taliban are looking forward to a negotiation process with US in order to end the conflict, at least for the time being. There are also indications that certain Taliban members are also tired of continuous struggle and loss of their dear ones.

Therefore, they are more interested in peaceful solution to the conflict. A Taliban commander has reportedly mentioned, "There are fighters who had suffered losses, lost their family members in fighting and became homeless who want a peaceful solution to the long war." Nevertheless, there are many others who have nothing else to opt except militancy in order to pursue the objectives of both their individual and collective lives in Afghanistan.

Many analysts rightly believe that the socio-political scenario in Afghanistan will be greatly influenced by the policies of their neighbors towards Afghanistan and its politics. Pakistan, in this regard is considered as one of the most important countries that may influence the circumstances in Afghanistan to a great extent.

However, currently there are indications that Pakistan may not consider it in its interest that Taliban gain power again as Pakistan itself is badly worried about terrorist and their ill intentions. Formation of Taliban's stronghold in Afghanistan would definitely encourage terrorism in Pakistan.

A Western diplomat, concerning the same idea, has remarked, "I got the strong impression that Pakistan does not see a Taliban takeover to be in its interests." At the same time, it must never be forgotten that Pakistan has always pursued its objective of having great influence in Afghanistan.

It is quite possible that Taliban may not rise to the sort of power again, which they used to have but there are some very important reasons to think that it would be difficult to maintain peace and harmony in the country. One of the reasons of thinking in this way is that the basis of the conflict in Afghanistan is not being solved, the roots are being neglected while there have been endeavors to cut the leaves alone.

It is not difficult that the leaves may grow again provided that the roots are healthy. There are two factors, which if not attended properly at the ongoing reconciliation and transition process, would definitely give rise to uncertainty and disorder in Afghan society, if not the return of Taliban.

The first factor is the solution of conflict between Taliban and anti-Taliban factions. As long as there is a conflict of Taliban and anti-Taliban ideologies, it would be difficult to keep the country away from the possibilities of tussles and clashes which may in the long run give rise to wars.

The ongoing reconciliation process must not try to make temporary adjustments so as to compensate Taliban in Afghan socio-political scenario; rather it must get to the root of the conflict and must address the Taliban and anti-Taliban conflict. However, the ongoing reconciliation process does not seem to bother much about this conflict.

It has not been able to gain some amount of trust between US and Afghan Presidential office, let alone the opposition and minority groups in Afghanistan, which are, in fact, the real anti-Taliban factions. The second factor that may give rise to disorder in Afghan society is an incapable political setup.

The incapability of Afghan system can be related to both the inherent default of Afghan system being very much centralized and personality-centered and the mounting corruption within the fabrics of Afghan politics. Though the second factor is a matter separate from what has to happen in reconciliation process, there must be emphasis on this factor both by international community and Afghan authorities so as to make the peace process last for some while as an inappropriate and corrupt system may not provide a suitable ground for peace and tranquility to grow easily.