Afghanistan of today has been at the receiving end of more than ten years of generous international aid and assistance and would still need many more years of sustained assistance. The military component of the international community's engagement in Afghanistan has been the most extensive and the most controversial. The trend of war and violence over the past one decade has been steadily increasing with the previous three years being the bloodiest.

The casualties sustained by the NATO-led international coalition in Afghanistan were at its highest in 2010. The year 2011 witnessed a marked decrease in the number of military casualties and this was distinctly owed to the U.S. government's 'surge' strategy implemented in late 2010 which was effective in reducing the momentum of the Taliban insurgency across the country.

A few days ago, the NATO in Afghanistan issued a report which stated that the incidence of war-related violence in Afghanistan decreased by 8% in 2011 compared to 2010. The NATO in Afghanistan has attributed this drop in violence to the international coalition's heightened military campaigns in 2010 and 2011, itself partly as a result of the 'surge' strategy undertaken by the Obama Administration in late 2009.

This NATO's report clearly describes the drop in the momentum of the Taliban (and other militant groups) to directly engage the international troops by way of either firefights or roadside bombings. Although the year 2011 has been a very difficult year for the NATO-led coalition and the Afghan National Security Forces (ANSF), as the report outlines, it has been less violent in comparison to 2010 when the injection of 30,000 additional American troops into the country led to war and violence spiraling to never-before-seen proportions.

In the year 2011 the decline in the Taliban's ability to cause violence was markedly lower compared to the year before that and this was well reflected and palpable in the news media reports. But there is a great deal of difference between civilian casualties and the Taliban's ability to cause violence.

According to a United Nations report released last year, the volume of civilian casualties was markedly higher compared to the year before that. The UN report argued that the year 2011 was by far the most violent year for the civilians.

This report released by the U.N. is in direct contradiction with the report released by the NATO in Afghanistan. While one report argues that the casualties were at its worst, the other report talks of a significant decline in the level of violence across the country.

It would be interesting to look at the underlying reasons. The fact is that neither of the reports contradicts the other but each report has its own unique definition of violence and war-related incidents. The report released by the NATO primarily takes into account those violent incidents in which the NATO-led international troops or the Afghan National Security Forces are attacked or exposed to Taliban's and other militant groups' firefight including bombings and IEDs.

On the other hand, the report by the UN highlights those security and war related incidents in which the civilians are primarily targeted or are affected. These are two very divergent criteria for defining security and war-related incidents and it lies at the heart of the seemingly contradictory reports of the NATO and the UN.

Anyway, the findings of both the reports are clear and there can be no doubt about them. The Taliban, as the largest insurgent group, have indeed reduced their attacks on the NATO-led international troops and this is, as said, in part a result of the weakening of the Taliban's ability and momentum.

The NATO-led coalition, particularly the U.S. Special Forces in conjunction with the elite teams of the Afghan National Army, have been able to deal strong blows to the operational structure of the Taliban. Many of the middle-ranking commanders of the Taliban have been eliminated over the past two years.

Operation at the local level has become very difficult for these middle-ranking commanders especially in the Southern regions. Along with the weakening of the Taliban in fighting the Afghan and foreign armed forces, the Taliban have adopted a new strategy involving increasing numbers of IED and roadside bombings.

This new strategy has led to a large increase in the number of civilian casualties. Hardly any day passes by without the news of Afghan civilians falling victim to the IED and road-side bombings of Taliban. The intended targets of these road-side bombs and IEDs are Afghan and foreign troops while it is the civilians who bear the brunt of these attacks.

The winter in Afghanistan will be practically over in two months and it would mean the start of a new fighting season in which the Taliban will certainly come out with a new operation. In the last fighting season, "Offensive Badr" was the codename for their new season of operations.

Over the coming fighting season, the Taliban will indeed try to come out with greater force. One reason will be the ongoing negotiations and the opening of their political office in the Qatari capital of Doha. The current circumstances and the ongoing talks compel the Taliban to increase their military pressure on the battlefields while their representatives sit at the negotiation table.

The second reason is Taliban's loss of the high ground in direct fights with the Afghan and international troops over the past two years. The Taliban are indeed determined to reverse the trend of past two years and put up a much stronger show this new fighting season.

The political office for Taliban is set to be inaugurated soon. The news reports are awash with stories of English-speaking Taliban "diplomats" having already arrived in Qatar. This, itself, qualifies to be a drastic step in the Taliban's desperate efforts to pull off an image makeover.

Some of the more political-savvy Taliban figures are already trying to persuade everybody that the movement has finally changed its colors and has abandoned its extreme ways and can be counted as eligible enough to govern Afghanistan. The hypocrisy of this statement is, needless to say, appaling.