Editor in Chief: Moh. Reza Huwaida Wednesday, April 24th, 2024

An Uncertain Future for Afghanistan

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An Uncertain Future  for Afghanistan

The international conference on international assistance to Afghanistan is scheduled to be held in Tokyo, Japan in July of 2012. The Tokyo international conference is scheduled to focus on international economic assistance to Afghanistan for development and reconstruction during the decade 2014-24, which is supposed to be transformational. The international community will pledge to support Afghanistan after the withdrawal of foreign troops in 2014.

We have to answer these questions: How will be the situation of foreign aid after 2014? Will foreign aid be high or low after the withdrawal of foreign troops? What are the obligations of the state in Afghanistan to grow and strengthen the country's economy? What about the problems of corruption and insecurity?

A few days ago, Japanese Foreign Minister, Koichiro Gemba, came to Kabul and met with President Hamid Karzai. Officially, he invited President Hamid Karzai to this international conference in Tokyo. The President and the Japanese Foreign Minister talked about Japan's aid to Afghanistan and the issue of Afghanistan's development and stability.

Japan has also invited those countries that could be of importance to the future of Afghanistan. During the meeting, the Foreign Minister of Japan pledged his country's continued support to Afghanistan. Japan indeed has been the second biggest donor to Afghanistan at the global level for the past 10 years.

Japan went through the devastating tesunami of last year. Nevertheless, it has continued support to Afghanistan and has promised to contribute 5 billion dollars to Afghanistan in new commitments. Japan's commitments of assistance at Tokyo, London and Paris Conferences amount to $2 billion, which, with the newly declared assistance of $5 billion, totals to $7 billion. Around $3.1 dollars of the Japanese assistance has so far been spent in Afghanistan.

The first international conference on aid to Afghanistan was held 10 years ago in Tokyo. About 50 countries participated in that conference and deliberated on providing financial assistance to Afghanistan. Since then, however, much time has passed and many conferences have been held in different countries on Afghanistan.

The last one was the international conference in Bonn, Germany held in December of 2011. During the conference, the delegates talked about the process of talks with Taliban. The international conference in Tokyo is the best and probably the last chance for Afghanistan to secure the most favorable terms for assistance to Afghanistan in the period 2014-24.

Although the participating countries pledged financial assistance to Afghanistan also during the Bonn 2 conference, in Tokyo they will determine the concrete numbers and quantities of aid to Afghanistan and to what extent they will stand behind Afghanistan in the difficult period ahead.

The international community has a very significant stake in the stability and security of our region, which used to be a breeding ground for terrorism and could become so again if the stakeholders fail to make Afghanistan succeed. "We can't repeat the mistakes of the past and let Afghanistan become a secure retreat for international terrorists," warned US Secretary of State Hillary Clinton.

The most important issue under discussion in the Tokyo Conference of donors will be the economic stability in Afghanistan after the withdrawal of NATO-led troops in 2014. Most of economic experts predict that Afghanistan will face an economic crisis after 2014 if the necessary safeguards are not put in place beforehand.

So Afghanistan and the international community should work on finding suitable solutions to this problem. According to reports, the international community will reduce financial aid to Afghanistan after 2014 and their enthusiasm and interest to support Afghanistan has decreased.

The question here is why they are intent on cutting their aid to Afghanistan? The reasons can be divided into two categories: domestic and international reasons. Quoting from a survey in the West, pubic opinion in the western counties in favor of supporting Afghanistan is fast decreasing. Also the economic crisis that started three years ago is still a major problem.

There are, as well, other domestic reasons. Over the last ten years, a lot of financial aid came into Afghanistan but they were largely squandered. This shows that Afghanistan government is incompetent. Over the past 10 years, corruption, insecurity and production of drugs increased consistently.

According to the statistics published, about 30 per cent of Afghans struggle with the problem of bribery and corruption has made the people of Afghanistan spend up to $2.5 billion annually on corruption. Although Afghanistan government pledged to eradicate corruption and the production of drugs, it has not succeeded.

Afghanistan should try to eradicate corruption, promote the rule of law and improve governance, noting that all are vital to secure financial assistance in the coming years from many other countries. There is need for essential reforms at both levels of government and the state to attract the trust of the international community.

Unfortunately, the government of Afghanistan was able to spend only about 40 per cent of development budget for this fiscal year. Afghanistan should prepare a detailed plan of how to use the international aid prior to Tokyo conference in July.

The government should spend the aid in the areas of transport, infrastructure, energy, agriculture and investment in the mining sector. What is clear is that if foreign aid is not used in the right way, instead of contribution to the welfare and better economic condition of people, it would lead to rise in corruption, war and violence in the country.

The Tokyo Conference will be aimed at carving out a strategy for Afghanistan's sustainable development and will be a follow-up to the Bonn Conference of last year, which committed to continuing engagement with Afghanistan beyond 2014. As we know, the economic crisis still continues in Europe and the United State and Afghanistan is still dependent on foreign financial aid, especially support from the U.S. Currently, Afghanistan spends (as its 'ordinary budget') three times more than what it earns domestically.

So what will happen if the international community cut their financial aid? The World Bank has warned that the reduction in foreign aid could have a "profound impact" on Afghanistan. Indeed, Afghanistan will face economic crisis after the withdrawal of foreign troops from the country.

Naeem Yaghoobi is the new emerging writer of Daily Outlook Afghanistan. He can be reached at outlookafghanistan@gmail.com

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