Regime change and political restructuring in Arab countries is the most current and critical development that has amused everyone, especially political strategists and scholars throughout the world. In less than a year, the home-grown and street demonstrations led by people, particularly young generations, were able to topple down the regions' three most powerful autocratic rulers and dynasties.
The Arab Spring was the best phrase used to define the sacrifices of those involved in revolutions and predict the roadmap ahead. With the Arab world undergoing enormous changes, there are legitimate concerns about what the revolutions will eventually produce.
Political observers have presented two main arguments and assumption about the post-revolution picture or scenario. The optimists which include majority of common people believe that the Arab Spring is a harbinger to the end of dark period of absolutism, corrupt political system and authoritarian family rule, while opposition has expressed concern that the ousted autocrat regimes may be replaced by Islamic dictatorships and the Arab World will experience a depressing wave of religious extremism, sectarian violence and intolerant rulers.
In this writing, effort is made to analyze the two opposing arguments, provide a brief chronicle data for the revolutions and evaluate the characteristics of Arab societies if they can embrace modernity and effective democratic governments. Despite having access to world's richest natural deposits, Arab countries have not been able to provide justice, prosperity and happiness to their populations. Political power and natural resources have been monopolized by certain dynasties that ruled and some are still ruling for centuries without being accountable to their people.
UNDP's 2002 Human Development Report stated that "deeply rooted shortcomings" existed in Arab countries. The report was in fact revealing facts about frustrating domestic upheavals, stagnation and inactivity in Arab countries. The argument was mainly justified by lack of "respect for human rights and freedoms, "the status of Arab women, and the poor state of "knowledge acquisition and its effective utilization."
In 2003, the Human Development Report reaffirmed its previous statement about Arab countries and wrote, "True democracy is absent and desperately needed. The educational system is severely retarded; schools produce ignorant young men and women.
Most of the [Arab] intellectuals realize, even if they deny it, that most of what was said in the most recent Arab Human Development Report is true." (UNDP 2003). In period between 2002 and 2003 when the Arab countries were sick and deeply stagnant, no important political, economic and structural reform was undertaken to address and fix those serious shortcomings. In order to be able to explain the current developments in a more logical and realistic manner, it is important to underline different factors and impediments that influence the revolutions.
First, it is entirely premature to make a final and definitive judgment about the Arab Spring as the spontaneous process is not ended yet. Some countries are still struggling with street demonstrations and others have promised political openness and reforms.
The repercussion of Arab Spring will not be analyzed in isolation with past and contemporary economic, social, cultural and political situations. The long reign of authoritarian and oppressive regimes in most Arab countries has produced corruption, injustice and deprivation that, in turn, has created deep-rooted anger and resentments towards ruling families and elites.
However, even with potential evidences for change, full-scale revolutions and courageous street demonstration against powerful figures like Mubarak, Bin Ali and Qaddafi was not yet imaginable for many political thinkers and observers.
The hasty occurrence of change leads us to another conclusion that without having a well-thought and mature strategic plan in place, a swift revolution may prove counter-productive - occupation of Arab territories by religious dictatorship in this context.The current Arab Spring is threatened by following impediments:
Absence of capable human resources and intellectuals
The experience of democratic governments throughout the world has proved that a true democracy desperately depends on qualified human resources, capable of protecting democratic principles and extending basic services to people.
Modern states drive their legitimacy and continuity from continued public acceptance and support which, again, is offered only when people's will and aspirations are truly reflected in government's policies and behavior.
For this end, democratic governments are heavily investing in training and hiring qualified individuals to fill sensitive positions to represent governments and help the populations. The role of education, therefore, is enhanced as the main force behind any fundamental and sustainable change.
In case of Arab countries, education remains the most pressing concern threatening the future growth and productivity of its new generations. Many Arab countries struggle with a declining school and higher education system, incapable of enhancing the capabilities of individuals and societies.
Insufficient resources, outdated curricula, flawed educational policies, constant government interferences in educational activities, public indifference to education and scientific growth and low standard of living for teachers are the chief impediments facing educational system in most Arab countries.
The ruling dynasties have made every stride to provide easy and undisputed curricula for both school and university students where, instead of thinking critically and creatively, students are encouraged to memorize certain facts and are tested on memorized materials.
Universities in most Arab countries do not have the minimum academic autonomy and are directly controlled by ruling elites. While the western nations owe their achievements in all arenas, including science, technology, corporate and human development sector to highly sophisticated and independent school and higher education system, government in many Arab countries are trying to run the universities according to their political requirements.
Such an approach has practically kept Arab societies and young generations stagnant, ignorant, demoralized and highly dependent on external expertise and intellectuals. Given the inter-connectedness of modernity to capability and creativity, it is highly unlikely that Arab nations' current generations will demonstrate necessary strengths and skills to protect the revolutions with success.
In comparison to countries like India, China and Korea, Arabs have the lowest enrollments for both primary and higher education. For instance, the number of Indian students going abroad for higher education exceeds that of Arab applicants admitted to universities at home.
Almost all Arab countries failed to keep up with the rest of the world in areas ranging from education to the advancement of women. Sixty-five million Arab adults, mainly women, remain illiterate; less than 1 percent of Arab adults use the internet, and only 1.2 percent has computers.
No Arab university has any standing in world rankings. Arab regimes' miserable failure to meet the challenges of globalization has led to high rates of unemployment and poverty. In 2002, one in every five Arabs was living on less than $2 a day.
The report blamed the Arab world's stagnating economies, particularly in non–oil-producing countries, on many leaders' fixation with "discredited statist, inward-looking development models." In 2008, the average unemployment rate still stood at a disturbing 15 percent in North Africa and 12 percent in the rest of the Arab world, according to the International Labor Organization.
Among the young it was higher—17 percent in Egypt and 25 percent in Algeria. In these and other Arab states, high food prices, poor housing, and a lack of jobs constantly threaten to ignite social explosions and give Islamist groups a popular cause to ride. (Ottaway 2010)
It is important to stress here that media, social networks and other communication mechanisms played significant role during the time, and in many cases the aspects and potentials of revolutions are misrepresented or greatly exaggerated. The courageous participation of Arab nations, especially young generations, in historical street protests in Egypt, Tunisia, Yamen, Bahrain, Syria and armed resistance in Libya has demonstrated tremendous sacrifices and dedication to a brighter and more glorious future, but one has to critically explore if the revolutions are home-grown and supported by enough intellectual forces.
It will be too simplistic to conclude that the Arab people and young generations, on their own, are leading the current revolutions, and therefore, will protect them. In Libya, for instance, it was NATO's months-long air bombing and imposition of no-flight zone that perished Qaddafi's military mechanism and eventually ended his four-decade long rule. A revolution helped by external forces is viewed by many people as discredited act of treason against national pride and commitment to one's country of birth. Egypt's revolution succeeded by street protestors and public power, but the credit cannot all alone go to people.
Political experts have long forecasted the end of Mubarak era. It was very evident that Mubarak was struggling with fatal health problem which had left him unqualified to effectively lead Arab's most populous and cultured nation. Even if people had not protested against his rule, he would have gone through some arrangements with his military sub-ordinates, like the one that he has made now.
It has to be clarified here that the intention is not to discredit Arab Spring or forces behind it, but to emphasize that the abrupt changes and revolutions are not backed by capable human resources and intellectuals. In their absence, the post-dictatorship era will lead to domestic violence and emergence of extremist forces that, in many ways, will prove more dangerous and obstinate than previous regimes.
Arab Nations; Traumatized by Domestic Frustration and External Humiliation
To many Arabs, their current status at home and international level is humiliating and unacceptable. Despite having the richest geography and territory, Arabs are powerless actors in international system both politically and militarily. Palestine, the longest temporary conflict is an important case that has clearly demonstrated the weakness of Arabs' political and military power. The creation of a Jewish state at the heart of Arab nations was not inevitable. Arab nations were unable to respond effectively to formation of Israel in 14 may 1948. Therefore, the 1948 war of Israel with Egypt, Jordon, Syria and Lebanon, the 1956 war, the 1967, 1973 and all other following Arab-Israel wars were ended by victory of Israel. (Fawcett n.d.)
The disunity and factional rivalries in Arab countries have changed the Arab-Israel conflict into an asymmetric war where Israel is steadily gaining more military and strategic strengths while Arabs, especially Palestinians who are directly involved in the conflicts, are declining. Despite being the birthplace of Islam, one of the world's leading civilizations, Arab countries have not been able to install democratic governments in their lands. Even in the last decades when the world was celebrating the spread of democracy and the end of totalitarian, authoritarian, kingship and other forms of absolutist regimes, Arab countries remain strictly controlled by oppressive regimes ruling through family and heredity.
In order to stay in power, regimes in Arab countries, have exploited public resources and revenues to consolidate their family rule and power. Instead of investing in physical and social infrastructures of societies, the corrupt regimes have heavily spent public money to form army and intelligence agencies in order to challenge political growth and personal freedom. The unilateral exploitation of wealth and power by a limited minority and deprivation of majority has practically created a dangerous situation in most Arab countries where people and rulers are completely disconnected with each other. The interaction between Arab people and rulers is the worst form where both do not have any common ground and interests.
The growing feeling among Arabs is that their rulers are not only corrupt and unqualified but also disloyal to their pride and reputation. It is probably a justification for contrasting gap between official policies and public opinions in most Arab states. For instance, Saudi Arabia is the main ally for USA in the region.
The country hosts a large number of US army personnel and military facilities. Both countries have repeatedly said that they are strategic partners and will continue to expand the partnership. But at the same country, majority of people are against the presence of US troops in their country and even do not support having any relationship with the US, considering at an imperialist power that is trying to undermine Islamic principles.
This is not the case only with Saudi Arabia but also with other countries like Egypt, Bahrain and Jordon. In Bahrain, the government requested Pakistan and Saudi Arabia to send additional armed forces to fight against its people who are tired of the ruling family without having considered any national pride or respect for sovereignty and independence of the country. When relationship between people and ruler collapses, both parties demonstrate incompatible policies. In democratic and well-connected regimes, government's foreign and domestic polices reflect the wills and aspirations of people, but in despotic regimes, what government officials say or do is only representing the small group having share in power.
The result of increased distance and disconnection between people and ruler is the emergence of an angry and frustrated generation that is completely unhappy with Arab nations' domestic upheavals and international humiliation.
They correctly feel that Arabs can do a better job in terms of presenting capable leadership at home and abroad, and blame their rulers for regrettable failures and errors. Arab rulers' failure to comply with public aspirations has provided a fertilizing ground for extremist and terrorist networks and organizations to spread their school of thoughts and recruit the frustrated Arab youths for implementation of their fatalistic doctrine. The current Arab Spring is the beginning of a massive explosion resulting from decades-long deprivation, imbalance distribution of wealth and natural resources and suppression of democratic political movement. To be continued..
Secular Pan-Arab Nationalism VS Islamic Fundamentalism
Unlike initial optimism about the post-Arab spring and spread of democracy, there is now serious concern about the rise of another wave of Islamic fundamentalism replacing the ousted autocrats. Arab countries were witnessing bitter confrontation between ruling class elites leaning towards pan-Arab nationalism like former Egyptian President Anwar El-Sadat and a silent but growing population of fundamentalist Muslims supporting Sharia-based system.
The assassination of Sadat on October 6, 1981 right on the day that Egyptians had gathered to celebrate the first ever semi-victory in three Arab-Israeli conflicts in Suez Canal by fundamentalist Islamists in his own army was the strongest message indicating that pan-Arab nationalism and Islamists were irreconcilable. (Diamond January 2011). Besides the greed for power and wealth, the structural differences and incompatibility of goals have led both parties to enter into never-ending conflict.
In order to maintain family or dynasty rule and crackdown on all oppositions, Arab rulers used various patterns and institutions. Mukhabarat or (secret-police and intelligence apparatus) in countries like Saudi Arabia, Jordon, Morocco, Oman, Syria, Yemen, Bahrain and Egypt is normally the most expensive institution that is amply funded, technically sophisticated, highly penetrating, legally un-restrained, and splendidly poised to benefit from extensive cooperation with peer institutions in the region as well as western intelligence agencies. (l. Diamond n.d.)
The penetration of Arab countries by western military and civilian forces was an intentional policy by Arab rulers to stay in power. Because of oil revenues and other political considerations, the western powers and the United States compromised with dictatorship in Arab countries at the cost of democracy, social liberty and respect to human rights.
Opposition parties, especially Islamic ones, brutally suffered from oppressive policies and had no choice except to boycott the regimes or remain silent. Prominent opposition parties like Muslim Brotherhood in Egypt, for instance, was banned and hundreds of its members were imprisoned, which often followed torture and daily harassment by police and other pro-government forces.
(Wikipedia n.d.) Because of domestic suffocation and prosecutions members of opposition Islamic parties were divided in three distinct groups. First, some members, out of prudence and political expediency decided to remain silent, give up political activities and pursue a normal life under dictatorships.
While staying resolutely outside the government system, the second group with more commitment and dedication to the party's founding commitment, involved in building up social welfare networks, and religious and ideological ties at the grassroots garnering long-term bases of popular support. The third group, with more extremist political views and commitment to their religious call, decided to take arms against governments that they feel were corrupt, ruthless, isolated from people and heavily influenced and dependent on western strategic, military and financial support.
The third group followed their armed struggle in various forms and from different locations. Inside the Arab world, they did not have proper opportunity and support to create serious threats to government and therefore, dispersed to various places like Somalia, Palestine and Afghanistan to carry out armed activities. The formation of Al-Qaida the world's most dangerous and sophisticated terror organization was an expression of anger by the third group that was frustrated with their governments and western influences.
The post-Arab spring; who is going to win?
With the explanations throughout this paper, the most striking question is that who is going to win after the collapse of autocrats in Arab world? Will these countries have the fortune to establish truly democratic and modern governments? The answer will not be an absolute affirmative or negative one, but given the political developments in recent months, we may have a preview: In Tunisia, the country that had been the most secular and westernized of the Arab states, the election was won by once banned-Ennahda securing 89 out of 217 votes.
This party had challenged Tunisia's secular features for long and is now tasked to form the new interim government that will write a new constitution for the country which obviously will reflect the party's viewpoints more than anything. (Bouazza November 2011)Though the party's leader said that he was not inspired by the model of Iran's Islamic revolution and Tunisia will have a progressive government, the signs of concern and frustration are widespread among secular forces.
In Morocco which survived the Arab Spring through early elections and political reforms announced by King Mohammad VI, the moderate Islamic Justice and Development Party has secured the highest votes. At the time of writing this paper, the final results of Egypt's first post-Mubarak election has not been announced.
But preliminary reports have confirmed that Muslim Brotherhood's Justice and Freedom party is the clear winner in Egypt's major cities like Cairo and Alexandria. Libya's post Qaddafi is not clear yet, but in a historical speech in Benghazi, the birthplace of revolution, Mustafa Abdul Jalil, the head of Libya's Transitional Council, while announcing Libya's official libration from grasp of Qaddafi's 42-rule, stressed that he would make an Islamic government and would revive " Polygamy law" cancelled under Qaddafi.
Cancellation of anti-polygamy law was not necessarily Libya's first priority after it has been hugely devastated by NATO's air bombing and ground fighting between government forces and revolutionary fighters. But the statement was clearly expressing the mindset of those behind the revolution and their priority.
The fact is that a wave of Islamic rule and desire for Sharia-based political system is sweeping across the Arab world. It will replace secular dictatorships with Islamic ones. During the long years of totalitarian rule in the Arab states, the population of fervent Muslim has increased in numbers much faster than the secular population.
The collapse of Arab's autocrat rule was inevitable for serious domestic and partially international reasons. Even those in power now understand that they are not immune from revolution and change. Despite dominant belief in western world and among Arab and Islamic scholars that the current movement is an "awakening Islamic revolution" that will eventually lead to modern and progressive governments, the revolution is just a response to long-term totalitarian rule.
Lack of necessarily human intellectuals, traumatized populations trained with idea of revenge and retaliations, long-standing confrontation between Islamic fundamentalism and secular groups and international influence are among the chief factors tilting the revolution to radicalization and extremism.