With the resilience of the Taliban insurgence in mind, the US military commanders seem to have sketched precautionary measures by repositioning the US forces in the neighboring countries close to Afghanistan. It is believed that the United States does not trust Taliban to honor their commitment to the agreement they signed in Doha last year, signs of which are emerging as the insurgents have substantially increased attacks on Afghan Government positions immediately after President Biden announced complete withdrawal of forces from Afghanistan. The Taliban have agreed to reduce violence and engage in peace talks with the Government of Afghanistan, though they did participate in the ‘peace talks’ with Afghan Government, their motives to agree to terms that would lead the warring parties strike a peace deal is not in sight. Despite the announcement by the US and the NATO to withdraw forces from Afghanistan, there are reports that both the US and the UK will leave hundreds of armed personnel in Afghanistan to protect their embassies and diplomats – including development workers. In addition, there are reports that the US will establish military bases in the tribal areas of Pakistan, which border Afghanistan by more than 2000 miles, which – if true – can substantially change the current dynamic of military campaign. The Taliban have been using the ‘presence of foreign troops in Afghanistan’ to entice / encourage young, religious zealous to fight the ‘infidels’ and ‘their supporters’ (Afghan Government), and this (ONLY THIS) strategy has been working for the group to recruit fighters. Now that the US opens military bases in Pakistan, it will be very difficult for the Taliban to recruit fighters or entice them to fight against the Government of Afghanistan, as the US and NATO forces have started withdrawing from Afghanistan and instead positioned themselves in the tribal areas of Pakistan. From the look of it, it seems the battlefields will shift from Afghanistan to Pakistan, which will substantially change dynamics of current affairs in this whole region. There were reports that Tajikistan and Uzbekistan would allow US bases in their countries, which if happens, can attract jihadi fighters to try to establish niche for themselves in those countries too to start guerrilla type military campaign on the pretext to ‘chase out foreign invaders’ from those countries. Geopolitical matters and military campaign – including war theatre – are undergoing substantial changes and new scenes and realities will emerge within the next year or two, which will catch the region by surprise. Therefore, unless these plausible changes are already planned and shared with the military and civilian leaders of the region, it will be difficult to sanely plan and devise effective mechanisms to deal with challenges in the aftermath of such developments that can affect the whole region.
It is imperative for the Government of Afghanistan to start planning and devise strategies to fill the gaps it has been experiencing since last two decades, which continue to hamper its ability to roll out development programs and good governance. One of the most important aims should be to explore means and sources of economic development. Afghan Government cannot sustain on international assistance / grant for long term, and it cannot make independent decisions to fund and implement national agenda or policies out of money granted by other countries. Therefore, it of paramount importance to exploit economic opportunities of the countries to generate indigenous income. One of such economic opportunities include extractive industry in the country, The United States in 2008 presented a report to the then President of Afghanistan, Hamid Karzai that Afghanistan was sitting on mineral treasure. The report said these minerals worth more than a trillion dollar at the minimum, and other sources declared that the mineral burry of Afghanistan might worth more than three trillion US dollar. In addition, Afghanistan is bestowed with unmatched water sources, which can be exploited as effective means for economic development of the country by building water dams, hydropower generation, constructing industrial size irrigation schemes across the country to increase agricultural products and add in the size of greenery of the country and to sell water to neighbors like Iran and Pakistan, who badly need water for irrigation and life support. The author of this article believes Afghan Government should start with exploiting extractive industry as these are low-laying fruits and Afghan Government needs financial sources to support its efforts to buttress national defense and security agencies in term of equipping them with advance military gadgets and ammunitions, impart effective training to soldiers and offer them good salaries to help in recruiting more soldiers.
Located in the most strategic spot in Central Asia, Afghanistan is in the strongest position to offer economic partnership to other countries and sign mutually beneficial agreements in areas of security and defense cooperation, economic development cooperation, trade and cultural cooperation and people to people cooperation. It has never been more important now to embark on these missions than any other time since last five decades. Afghanistan is facing international terrorism and it suffered hugely because these terrorist groups build their niches in the ungoverned areas in the country with support from few neighboring States and non-state actors, which continue to take immense toll on its citizens’ lives, economy, education, security and national interests. By entering into defense / security and economic development agreements with important regional and international countries, Afghanistan can easily distribute the risk and bring into the fold other countries of the world to share their part of responsibilities to ward off terminate ongoing menace of terrorism from Afghanistan in particular and from the world in general. A collective, national, regional and international efforts and cooperation is required to succeed against the challenges that Afghanistan, the region and the world are facing.