Pakistan has been considered one of the regional heavyweights in the Afghan peace process as the US and Kabul administrations stressed its role and urged for active and constructive engagement in the process. Afghan-Pak officials have had exchanged their views about the Afghan peace issue on telephone in which Pakistani officials reiterated their support to the process.
It is self-explanatory that the role of Islamabad in the Afghan peace process is highly crucial as it has strong leverage on the Taliban leadership, which has its councils in Pakistan. If Pakistan puts its weight behind the Afghan peace process and pressure the Taliban to bring down their expectations and reduce violence, the possibility for productive talks will be very high.
Many believe that the peace process is unlikely to bear the desired result if the Taliban’s backers do not withdraw their support for them and if regional stakeholders do not engage sincerely in the process. With this in mind, the role of regional and global stakeholders in general and the role of Pakistan in particular are highly important in the Afghan peace issue.
The Taliban have to declare a permanent ceasefire and stop killing Afghan soldiers and civilians in order to support the process and show their genuine intention, if they have. After the US troop pullout, the Taliban will not be able to justify their narrative of “jihad” based on religious tenets.
If the Taliban continue their acts of violence after the troop withdrawal, it will be a civil war and Afghan political factions are likely to join the government to defeat the Taliban, if they persist on military deal.
All Islamic clerics have to issue fatwa (religious decree) against the Taliban’s acts of war and violence in Afghanistan so that they could have fulfilled their religious obligations. In other words, religious clerics around the Islamic countries, including Pakistan, Iran, Saudi Arabia, Egypt, etc. have to issue fatwa against the Taliban acts of killings and bloodshed in the country, which is another role regional stakeholders can play. To put it succinctly, regional stakeholders should play their role sincerely through religious and political organs.
The upcoming Istanbul conference will carry increasing significance, in which the Afghan government, the Taliban, and the US and some representatives from regional and global states will participate. In the conference, regional and global actors are able to pressure the Taliban to reach agreement in principle issues with the Afghan government and bring down their expectations.
The Afghan government waits for Pakistan how it would play its role and what achievements it could make in the peace process. In another item, Pakistani officials have said constantly that they would support the peace process.
Hence, Afghans eye if Pakistan fulfills its promise and broker the peace stalemate and persuade the Taliban to declare ceasefire and integrate into the system without many expectations.
I believe that the Taliban, although declared they will not participate in Istanbul conference, are not willing to miss this opportunity and will participate in the meeting. If the Taliban group does not participate in the Istanbul conference, its intention for peace will come under question.
Hence, the Taliban have gained many concessions through peace process and will not seek to backtrack through turning down the Istanbul conference.
It is important to note that the Taliban’s insincere intention in the talks have been proved for the people of Afghanistan and perhaps for the entire world for two main reasons. First, the Taliban have turned down public and official demands for reduction in violence and declaration of ceasefire. Notwithstanding the efforts for peace, the Taliban spill the blood of Afghan combatants and non-combatants without hesitation.
Second, the Taliban simply focus on getting interests and concessions through peace talks. They have not honored the Doha Agreement and not fulfilled almost any promises they made. But the US administration, understanding this fact, simply ignores it.
The Taliban have to pave the ground for agreement through stopping violence and bloodshed. Killing the people of Afghanistan has no religious justification.
If Istanbul conference does not bear a positive result, the consequences are likely to be horrible and the room for agreement will be narrowed.
That is, failure of Istanbul conference will diminish the opportunity for talks. In such a case, the Taliban group, which has no support from the nation, will lose more than any other group and may undo the concessions and international recognition it has gained so far.
Regional stakeholders, mainly Pakistan, are able to show their role in the conference. To avoid the spillover, regional and global actors have to push the process forward and pressure the Taliban to stop playing a foul game.