Editor in Chief: Moh. Reza Huwaida Saturday, October 20th, 2018

Taliban Surge & Uncertain Future


Taliban Surge & Uncertain Future

Reading the very current course of political crisis in Afghanistan and worldwide and the excessive growth of fundamentalists claims a very uncertain and dismal future for the people of Afghanistan and for the world at large. We witness every day the surge of Taliban movements, by targeting the key officials and their acceleration in occupying every other most peaceful parts of Afghanistan and strengthen their planning and strategies day by day in the provinces and villages to gain their objectives.

Historically, they have been recognized more stable regions of Afghanistan but now the most dangerous and the worst killers of human freedom, human movement, human value, and human rights with an increasing number of insurgents attacks taking place in the region.

Perhaps, the very recent increase in the number of their tactical and strategic attacks on key officials by suicide bombings and other explosive means are the clear example of their growth in the country which indicates their strong presence more sharply than they have ever been. Increasingly, the levels of Taliban activities have risen sharply in recent days.

The attack on the governor's compound was the second such incident in recent months which surprised everyone despite being that safe and provided with full security guards. At the beginning of June, Jawad Zahak, the head of the provincial council in peaceful Bamyan province was kidnapped and executed while traveling along Parwan's increasingly dangerous central highway. Observing the realities on the ground, it appears to disappoint the people because every safe parts of Afghanistan have turned into insecurity and bloodshed.

Apparently, it happened when the U.S president announced the drawdown of his troops from the country at the end of 2014. Since the NATO forces leave the ground, the insurgents activities are well working to widen their influence by kicking peace at the cost of terror attacks in the southern and northern provinces. With most Afghan and NATO troops stationed in the southern and eastern parts of the country, security in once-peaceful regions has deteriorated as the Taliban attempt to demoralize NATO and undermine that they can still fight to win the war and gain their objectives.

By applying their various tactics against the government and communities and by putting them against each other in some cases, prying on people's frustration with the government and employing classic intimidation in large measures insurgents are holding territory in Northern provinces such as Kuduz, Logar, and recently in one of the most peaceful area, Parwan province including Kabul city where it has just recently turned to become the main targeted part. Indeed for quite some time, the insurgents have gotten closer and stronger in the central provinces and it is not unique to Parwan.

However, yet, the recent instability in the central provinces complicates the coalition's timelines considerably. Parwan is among the possible candidates for the second stage of the transition from NATO to Afghan control.

The Afghan National Army's 6th battalion is headquartered in the Posht-e Sorkh area of Parwan and it is hoped that they will be able to enhance the province's security. Yet, although the governor Salangi insists that the transition will go ahead as planned, the very recent attack has certainly deepened concerns about whether Afghan soldiers and police will be able to preserve stability in the region alone. This is the question that the whole people of Afghanistan are concerning about since every day the situation is getting worse.

In addition, the instability in Afghanistan at large complicates the broader withdrawal timeline. U.S military officials have already begun withdrawing from the country. For most of the provinces and for the whole country, perhaps the most serious danger is that political deadlines which will force an early transition or withdrawal which is an absolute risk for the political stability of Afghanistan.

If security responsibilities are left to Afghan forces that are under-prepared and unable to maintain order and their current capabilities are by no means certain, it will prepare the ground for the Taliban greater operational freedom and encourage further incursions into these previously peaceful territories. Giving them greater scope to operate will also bolster their certainty of outlasting the coalition force.

If NATO wants to hold central Afghanistan against the insurgents, its military and political leadership must weigh the risk profile of the transition very carefully before proceeding. Following timelines will not meet the desired results if the Taliban are subsequently able to establish safe havens and support networks in the provinces around the capital to operate against the government.

Very clearly, though the reconciliation is under process with the so-called men who are currently alienated from Afghan government and who are still with the intention to accelerate their attacks and horror among the people. Observing the very current realities on the ground, it sometimes looks possible for the terrorists to become respected members of the society and even the government itself.
In the recent course of insecurity, the situation in Afghanistan is really grim enough not to be trusted while on the other hand the talks with the Taliban is on today's top stories that is threatening the government's stability.

According to the UN recent report, there comes a concern once again over Afghan civilian casualties which have increased by 15 percent in the first half of 2011 compared to the same period last year. The growth of civilian causalities in the region has always been a worrying factor as this has also had an impact of reducing civilian support to NATO operations despite the overall number of casualties alleged by foreign forces have gone down significantly. On the other hand, 80% of the civilian deaths attributable to the Taliban, they have much to answer to the locals by violating the rule of peace among the people.

However, the attacks in and close to the capital raise more questions about Afghanistan's ability to defend itself as the U.S.-led coalition hands more of the country over to its struggling forces. By now, the extreme growth of the insurgent attacks on Key Afghan officials and government allies worried the government itself and the Afghan people at large.

The recent assassination of the Kandahar province's top cleric, president's half brother Ahmed Wali Karzai and the mayor of Kandahar province; Jan Mohammad the senior advisor to President Karzai and the former governor of Orazgan province, General Dawood Dawood, Jawad Zahak the head of the Bamiyan province council and the recent attacks on British Council's Compound on 19 August, on Independence Day of Afghanistan, that killed 12 people show us that the insurgent attacks have improved since the US President Obama has planned to withdraw till the end of 2014.

At this point, the insurgents targeting the high ranking officials and other terror attacks show the weakness of the government, and causing distress and hopelessness among people. It is, therefore, very important that the Afghan forces assume responsibility at the earliest, given the dynamics at play so that the U.S withdrawal means not the return of Taliban. It would become an absolute challenge for the Afghan government to shoulder the security challenges in order to guarantee peace and stability after the U.S and its allies withdraw.

Abdul Samad Haidari is the permanent writer of the Daily outlook Afghanistan. He can be reached at outlookafg hanistan@gmail.com

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