Editor in Chief: Moh. Reza Huwaida Friday, March 29th, 2024

Kabul Attack and the Future of Afghan Conflict

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Kabul Attack and the Future of Afghan Conflict

On Tuesday April 19, 2016 upwards of armed men stormed into security establishment that protects government VIPs in Kabul After a suicide attack killing 70 people and wounded 347 others.
Since then, the sense of unease and uncertainty is palpable among the denizens of Kabul. It is also evident that the government and the security forces were caught by surprise. The relatively long period of calm in Kabul had made them slip into a false sense of lull. However, that proved to be the lull before the storm. 
The line repeated by the government has been the usual one. One wonders how they have failed in creating a sense of panic and confusion and conveying the idea that they remain powerful and are able to attack anywhere and anytime at will. These were, by and large, the objectives sought and they were indeed successful at getting what they wanted. The message they intended to put across has gone down well with the government as well as the people at large.
It would not be difficult to ascertain who has been behind the audacious attacks in Kabul. The attacks bear the hallmarks of the Haqqani network. With its reach far and wide across eastern Afghanistan and northwards as far as Kabul, the majority of attacks in Kabul have been the handiwork of the Haqqani network.
It is apparent that these audacious attacks on a large scale had been planned much earlier and were intended to mark the beginning of the Taliban’s spring offensive.  In the U.S. military documents released by the Wikileaks, the Haqqani network is said to have a special unit created specifically to target and organize campaigns in Kabul city. This special unit has been in operation for at least six years and has the responsibility for planning, coordinating and executing attacks in the national capital.
The Tuesday attack, as audacious as they were, on the one hand, are an indication that the capabilities of the Taliban to counter Afghan and international security forces have been degraded. Taliban are no longer able to take these security forces head on and are forced to rely on IED and suicide bombings and occasional attacks on urban centers as seen in Kabul.
On the other hand, these attacks were a forceful demonstration by them conveying the message that they remain powerful and can present themselves as a challenge to the political and military order in Afghanistan. Though Taliban claimed responsibility of the deadly attack but National Directorate of Security said that Haqqani network orchestrated the attack. Analysts and observers as well are of the view that Haqqani network organized and executed the attacks and not the Taliban (although the two entities remain ideologically and operationally very close), shows that the Taliban do not have the operational and logistical capabilities that can match those of the Haqqanis. Haqqanis, being based in North Waziristan, maintain close links also with Pakistan-based militant groups such as the Lashkar-e Tayyba. It was the Lashkar that, in 2008, planned and executed the Siege of Mumbai. Now the same modus operandi is being increasingly replicated in Afghanistan. For the militant networks and their benefactors, the waves of media publicity that such high-profile attacks create are simply too valuable to be ignored. The main objective sought in Kabul attack was creation of a sense of fear and hopelessness however much temporary in the Afghan and foreign public opinion.
Afghan government, UN and International community strongly condemned this attack. However, it is, primarily, the duty of the Afghan security and intelligence agencies to be able to gather and provide “actionable” intelligence that can help thwart such attacks. The intelligence failure in Afghan agencies was glaring in the lead-up to these attacks.
The attacks are also significant in the context of the ongoing talks and negotiations. Representatives from the Hizb-i Islami had arrived in Kabul just before the attack. The Taliban have proclaimed that they are no longer talking with the government of Afghanistan. Since the attacks were organized and executed by the Haqqani network, we are going to see increasing efforts on the part of the U.S. and the government of Afghanistan to engage also the Haqqanis. Amid reports, the United States has pressed Pakistan to follow up on Islamabad's expressed commitment not to discriminate between terror groups. "We have consistently expressed our concerns at the highest level of the Government of Pakistan about their continued tolerance for Afghan Taliban groups such as the Haqqani Network operating from Pakistani soil, " Elizabeth Trudeau, Director of Press Office for the US State Department said.

Most probably, we are going to see renewed American efforts to seek paths of talks with this group. The efforts of the government of Afghanistan are, however, unlikely to produce any results as far as the Haqqani network is concerned.

Mohd. Mehdi Rezaie is the former columnist of the Daily Outlook Afghanistan. He can be reached at mohammadmehdi.rezaie@yahoo.com

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