Editor in Chief: Moh. Reza Huwaida Friday, March 29th, 2024

US Long-Term Commitment to Afghanistan

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US Long-Term Commitment to Afghanistan

With a fresh resurgence of the Taliban and the emergence of the Islamic State group in Afghanistan, the US is being encouraged to backtrack a previous plan to pull out most of the country’s forces from Afghanistan by 2017 and leave a small contingent of troops for protection of US diplomatic premises in the country. Recently, Gen. John Campbell, top US general commanding the Resolute Support Mission in Afghanistan warned over the situation in Afghanistan, stressing that the US should delay withdrawal of thousands of troops and keep a larger force in the country in 2017. Last week, the Washington Post also reported that “Top U.S. military commanders... are now quietly talking about an American commitment that could keep thousands of troops in the country for decades.” Other reports, though not confirmed officially, suggest that the US military wants to maintain at least the current number of troops, which is around 10,000, in Afghanistan for at least five years.
The shift of approach among American military commanders over the US mission in Afghanistan is sparked by the deteriorating situation in Afghanistan and the rising security challenges due to the increased activities of the militant groups in the country. In 2015, the Taliban waged the deadliest of their offensives against the government since the group’s fall in 2001. Despite being unable to hold key areas for a longer time, the Taliban organized most audacious and complicated attacks and momentarily took the key northern town of Kunduz. The scale of the insurgency waged by the Taliban last year helped the group to have the upper hand in the conflict. The Taliban now is preparing for a similar large-scale offensive against the Afghan government in the coming fighting season which will start in summer.
On the other hand, expansion of the Islamic State group in Afghanistan worried many regional countries and world powers who have been closely watching the rise and expansion of the Islamic State group in the Middle East and South Asia. The US has been anxious over how the multi-facet crisis of the Middle East and the rise of the Islamic State group in Afghanistan would impact the long-lasting conflict in the country for which the US has paid huge price so far. In previous years, official assessments of the American military from capabilities of the Afghan security forces were much more optimistic, encouraging a sustained withdrawal of US forces from the country. The US committed to continue supporting Afghanistan’s security forces through the Resolute Support Mission while ending its combat role in Afghanistan and taking a marginal role in the protracted conflict.
The United States considers the current mission of Resolute Support Mission as a long-term strategy to strengthen Afghanistan’s armed forces to carry out the task of anti-insurgency campaign and maintain security in the country. However, the trend of developments in last two years has increasingly been endangering the achievements of the last over-a-decade of the US-led international efforts. The spillover of multi-facet crises of the Middle East into other regions such as the South Asia and particularly into Afghanistan has come as an alarm for Washington. The US is seems increasingly uneasy with the inevitable impacts of the Middle East crises on the Afghan conflict, for which the US has paid heavy prices in treasures and blood.
However, this is while many in the US argue that the country will not be able to achieve its objectives pursued through the current mission in Afghanistan. The critics of a US robust military role in Afghanistan argue that there is no sight of an endgame in the Afghan conflict while it would continue to cost heavily for the country. For them, the country’s trouble in the unending conflict in Afghanistan is comparable to the US bogged down in the Vietnam War. They warn the US of committing military presence in the country for a longer period of time.
But the critics of the US presence in Afghanistan miss a crucial issue: the US cannot turn a blind eye into the conflict in Afghanistan after fourteen years of presence in the country with heavy tolls and prices. The United States has spent hundreds of billions of dollars and more than two thousand American troops have been sacrificed as part of the mission. While the United States is already struggling to maintain interests in other parts of the world such as the Middle East and the East Asia, it is emerging cautious of underestimating the trends in the Afghanistan-Pakistan region. Afghanistan could again be propelled to the brinks of an abyss if the international community ignores the deterioration of security in the country and turn a blind eye to the development of security events in the country.
The prospect of the conflict in Afghanistan will remain intertwined with other regional crises and developments such as the crises of the Middle East and the relations between regional powers such as Pakistan and India. It is believed that there is now a regional consensus over a long term solution for the conflict in Afghanistan. Despite that most of the stakeholders are prepared for backing resolution of the Afghan conflict, there is a long way ahead for peace in the country. This is because the regional militancy developments will continue to fuel the insurgency while political wills of the regional countries for supporting a solution to the conflict will continue to teeter.
This justifies a long-term and robust American military presence in Afghanistan. Continued engagement of the US in the conflict in Afghanistan would play a key role in success any peace negotiations in the future. The government of Afghanistan will need more than sufficient ability to tackle the insurgency and contain groups that endangers long-term security and stability of Afghanistan. The government of Afghanistan needs to step up efforts to, on one hand, encourage the US for a more robust military engagement and, on the other hand, promote a regional consensus over the future of Afghanistan.  

Abdul Ahad Bahrami is the permanent writer of the Daily Outlook Afghanistan. He can be reached at ahad.bahrami@gmail.com

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