Editor in Chief: Moh. Reza Huwaida Friday, March 29th, 2024

Peace Talk Resumption

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Peace Talk Resumption

News of Mullah Omar’s death was leaked just a day before a second meeting between Afghan government and Taliban elements was supposed to have taken place. The first meeting on July 07, 2015 near Islamabad, in Murree, initiated the so-called Murree Process. The revelation of Mullah Omar’s death and subsequent struggle for succession in the Taliban leadership threw the whole process into uncertainty. Although, the July meeting was celebrated as a breakthrough, some believed that Taliban were not there through choice but after intimidation from Pakistan.

The Afghan government was relying heavily on Pakistan for reviving the long-moribund peace process. Turning to Pakistan for facilitating peace talks probably emerged as the most viable option after Kabul felt it had reached a deadlock in its own attempts to reach out to the Taliban. The Afghan government had tried informal intermediaries, such as the uncle of President Ashraf Ghani, Qayum Kuchai, and formal, direct contacts. The head of the National Security Council, Hanif Atmar, visited Qatar in early March 2015, possibly with the hope of meeting the Taliban political office members. President Ghani himself, according to the presidential office, was supposed to visit the Gulf state in late May 2015, but the visit was cancelled. That trip also was reported to be linked to start direct talks with the Taliban’s political office. It seems the Afghan government, after unsuccessfully trying to reach out to the Taliban directly, felt they had little choice but to seek Pakistan’s help.

Additionally, there is another reason that can explain why the National Unity Government went to Pakistan for peace. It is believed that President Ghani sees the conflict mainly between states, Afghanistan and Pakistan, and thus sees the anti-state actors Kabul fights as mere proxies of Islamabad. He has made this point clear twice in statements. On August 03, 2015, he told journalists via a teleconference from Germany that “Our main goal is peace, peace between the sovereign states of Afghanistan and Pakistan, as Pakistan has been in a state of undeclared war with our country over the last fourteen years.”

In March, he told an audience at the US Institute of Peace in Washington that “The problem, fundamentally, is not about peace with Taliban…The problem is fundamentally about peace between Pakistan and Afghanistan.”

The National Unity Government (NUG) has been beleaguered and under pressure from all sides. The growing militancy and increase in civilian and security forces causalities, slow progress on forming a government, emerging political rivalries and a sinking economy – all make a quick peace deal attractive. However, seeking a quick fix may ruin the chance of getting a real peace process going.

The most essential element of a peace process is building trust among the warring parties. An external force intimidating one party into coming to the table can be no substitute for genuine interest in seeking a negotiated end to the conflict.

However, it seems it was not only the Afghan government that wanted a rushed peace deal enough to buy into the Pakistan channel. It appears the dominant thinking among US officials has been that Pakistan can bring the movement to talks by hook or by crook. According to a western official familiar with the key international actors involved in Afghan peace efforts, some of these actors prefer to have the most inclusive Taliban deal possible. If that is not achievable, it would be sufficient to include the Pakistan-based Leadership Council and Haqqani network and forget about Qatar or other Taliban figures living outside Pakistan. “The thinking is that the train, the Taliban core leadership, is based in Pakistan,” he is quoted as saying.

 “That will soon start moving. Those in Qatar have to either jump in and join the train or they will miss it.” Another western diplomat said the focus on sticking to the Pakistan channel was not aimed at excluding the Taliban’s political office, but rather “to create enough momentum, so that those in Qatar and elsewhere jump in.” So far, however, Pakistan has only been able to bring the appearance of representation of the Leadership Council and Haqqani “network” to peace talks, but nothing more.

During his most recent visit to Kabul, Pakistani army chief Gen. Raheel Sharif promised Afghan leaders that he would press Pakistan-based Taliban leaders to resume peace talks and take action against those who resort to terrorism and violence.

Afghan High Peace Council (HPC) expressed optimism regarding the reconciliation process and said on Friday that the second quadrilateral meeting between Afghanistan, Pakistan, China and the United States will assess the structure of direct talks between the Afghan government and the Taliban.

Zalmay Khalilzad, a former American ambassador to Afghanistan wrote, “Pakistan’s interest in a negotiated settlement to the Afghan war seems real enough, but the Pakistani military has never been willing to take the very steps most likely to advance the process, which are to close down Afghan Taliban and Haqqani network operations in Pakistan and imprison any of their leaders not actively negotiating peace with the government in Kabul.” He further added, “Without Pakistani initiative, talks with the Taliban are unlikely to succeed. Perhaps with Pakistani consent and support the Taliban will continue to push their advantage on the ground.

Alternatively, given ground realities, the Taliban might demand that the United States and Afghanistan cede provinces in the east and the south to them.”

Pakistani officials kept insisting on resuming peace talk when it was stalled with the revelation of Omar’s death. Finally, with the involvement of China and US official delegates, Afghanistan has put trust in Pakistan – following ebbed and flowed relations between the two countries. Now, both the countries express optimism over resuming the negotiation but the passage of time will reveal if it gives the desired result. 

Hujjattullah Zia is the permanent writer of the Daily Outlook Afghanistan. He can be reached at zia_hujjat@yahoo.com

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