The Taliban insurgency in Afghanistan entered a new phase of its history as the group has picked Mullah Akhtar Mohammad Mansoor as replacement for its deceased charismatic leader Mullah Mohammad Omar. After many speculations over death of Mullah Omar, Taliban finally confirmed his death and picked Mullah Mansoor as his successor after intensive talks among senior members of the Taliban Supreme Council, or the Quetta Shura. Media reports suggest Taliban senior leaders pledged allegiance to Mansoor as the group’s Supreme Leader despite differences between Taliban senior members over who should succeed the deceased Mullah Omar. Mullah Akhtar Mohammad Mansoor, who was civil aviation minister during Taliban regime, is believed to be one of the moderate leaders of the Taliban playing a key role in taking the initial steps for starting peace talks with the government of Afghanistan.

The transition in leadership for a group led by an unelected supreme council, which is comprised of powerful but competing members, would not be an easy task. Announcement of Mullah Omar’s death itself suggested the group’s vulnerabilities for the Taliban. Taliban say their leader has directly been in charge of group, and that he has died inside Afghanistan. This is while shortly before Taliban’s announcement on Mullah Omar’s death, Afghan intelligence officials said that Taliban supreme leader Mullah Muhammad Omar had died in 2013 in a Karachi hospital. There are claims from intelligence sources and Taliban splinter groups that Mullah Omar has died in unknown and mysterious circumstances.

In last two years, the Taliban continued to issue messages purported to be from Mullah Omar while it is believed that Mullah Mansoor was the de facto leader in charge of all activity of the group’s senior leadership. There are claims that the Taliban leader had been kept away from the group’s day-to-day activities while then his deputy Mullah Mansoor carried out his duties. According to reports, Taliban senior members and field commanders had been unable to contact Mullah Omar, leading to increasing distrusts between the mid-level operatives and senior leadership of the Taliban. All these indicate that the Taliban leadership has gone through a difficult time with potential impacts on the future of the group.

With the announcement of Mullah Omar’s death and election of Mullah Mansoor as next Taliban leader, the militant group is stepping in a pathless and uncharted future while the challenges for the group are enormous. The very first challenge for the Taliban and the group’s new leader would be preserving unity of the group which remained largely intact under its former charismatic leader. Taliban’s quick move to choose Mullah Omar’s successor is a sign indicating the group’s attempt to avoid erosion of the group’s core leadership by lapse of time and overcome any diverging differences over the future leadership of the group.

The transition in leadership of the Taliban raises serious questions on destiny of the biggest insurgent group in Afghanistan waging a deadly war against the Afghan government. There is no clear prospect for the Taliban insurgency after Mullah Omar, who was a charismatic leader leading the group into victory in 1990s and keeping the group unified after it was toppled from power in 2001 US invasion. With no doubt, the Taliban has no chance of remaining intact in absence of its charismatic leader Mullah Muhammad Omar. The question is that what will be impacts of death of Mullah Omar on the future of the Taliban. Will the group collapse in the face of an Afghan government anti-insurgency crackdown? Or will it divide into two or three rival groups choosing different paths on war and peace issues and even fighting each other?

The first issue for the Taliban’s survival is Mullah Mansoor’s capability in unifying the group and preventing potential erosion of the Taliban senior and middle level leadership to Islamic State or splinter groups from inside. Mullah Akhtar Mohammad Mansoor, who has been the de facto leader of the Taliban since 2013, is a controversial figure and his election has also been opposed by some high profile figures of the Taliban. Taliban are believed to be run by the powerful Quetta Shura as well as a Peshawar Shura, while now the Qatar office of the group also plays a key role in establishing contact with the outside world. It is believed that the decision makings by the Quetta Shura was dominated by Mullah Akhtar Muhammad Mansoor, while other key figures such Omar’s son and Mullah Qayum Zakir, a key commander of the Taliban, were supporting Mullah Yaqub, the eldest son of Mullah Omar, for promoting him to leadership of the Taliban.

Mullah Yaqub, who was tapped as successor to his father, is now defeated in the race for assuming the leadership of the Taliban. He could be a potential opposition figure to Mullah Mansoor’s leadership. There are also other key members such as Mullah Qayum Zakir, Taliban top military commander, Mullah Abdul Ghani Baradar, former deputy to Mullah Omar and Sayed Taib Agha, who have opposed Mansoor’s selection and some of whom are aligned with Mullah Yaqub. Almost all of the Taliban senior leaders who are unhappy with selection of Mullah Mansoor as next Taliban leader have loyalty of some factions or parts of the Taliban. Mullah Qayum Zakir will continue to have considerable influence over the Taliban fighters and field commanders and Mullah Yaqub will inherit supports of some parts of the Taliban who were loyal to his father.

Mullah Mansoor’s best chance for preserving unity of the Taliban is possible unification and unanimous support of members of the Taliban supreme council. However, given the diverging differences among Taliban senior members, the emerging challenges for Taliban and the fact that Mullah Mansoor is not a charismatic leader like his predecessor, it would be quite difficult for him to preserve Taliban ranks united. Therefore, there is chance of emergence and expansion of internal divisions among the Taliban and a split of the group into two or more splinter groups.

However, an unforgettable fact about the Taliban is that the group has been highly resilient against many external challenges. It is also possible for the group to overcome the internal differences and remain united. However, given the open differences over Mansoor’s selection as Taliban leader and unpopularity of the new leader, defection of Taliban members to other rival groups is inevitable. In this case, it is highly likely that rival groups opposing the Taliban such as the Islamic State or other groups recruit Taliban members and further defy the Taliban.