Since the coalition troops ended its combat operations in Afghanistan and the National Unity Government (NUG) was formed after the last year presidential elections, security conditions have been exponentially worsening by each passing day. The vacancy of national defense ministry seat, a fresh wave of high profile Taliban attacks, disputes inside the government and the drawdown of the NATO-led international troops are said to be major causes of the sharp rise of insecurity in the country. On one hand, the Taliban have been preparing for peace negotiations with the government; while on the other hand, they have increased their offensives inside Afghanistan. In recent months, Afghans witnessed heightened armed conflict on a daily basis. The Taliban even took control of two of Kunduz districts though the Afghan National Army soon wiped them out from those districts. What has caused the exponential rise of insecurity, and how will Afghans and the government react to the imminent threat of the resurging Taliban and other militant groups?
In 2014, Afghanistan witnessed its first-in-history peaceful transition of power from Hamid Karzai to President Ashraf Ghani and Chief Executive Officer Abdullah Abdullah. As the new government took power, the US-led coalition troops gave an end to its combat mission in Afghanistan nick-named Operation Enduring Freedom by withdrawing most of the troops by December 31, 2014. The two security and political transitions in Afghanistan in 2014 had profound impacts on security and stability of the country and considerably contributed to the worsening situation.
Given the security vacuum due to the withdrawal of international troops and the Afghan politicians being busy in electoral politics and formation a new government, the Taliban exponentially increased their attacks. With the security deteriorating, Afghans are worried about the worsening security situation more than ever. Thousands of people are fleeing the country; the Afghani currency’s value has dropped considerably in the international exchange rates; and unemployment has risen inevitably. Afghans now seem to be expecting a more difficult year ahead and yet a more grim future.
In the meantime, the Islamic State group (IS) has started recruiting fighters in many Afghan provinces. The Syria-born ISIS, which controls large parts of Iraq and Syria, started its operations in Afghanistan in 2014, coinciding with two major political and security transitions in the country. ISIS also announced its Khurasan province, which includes parts of Afghanistan and Pakistan, and began recruiting militants under the Khurasan Caliphate flag. Some of the Taliban senior militants have joined the Islamic State group.
The meteoric rise of the Islamic State in Afghanistan in 2014 was another unforeseeable threat to Afghanistan’s security. Given all these, Afghanistan has the potential to become a safe haven for ISIS. It is yet to see how the Afghan government will battle the Islamic State in Afghanistan. This is while the current situation has made Afghan citizens more pessimistic about the security situation.
In a far more different approach than in the past, the Taliban launched a comprehensive offensive against Afghan government forces in 2015. They were able to momentarily take control of many districts in Northern and Southern provinces. Moreover, the attack on Arbaki local militias in Jalrez left 30 soldiers dead. Due to insufficient ammunition and no assistance from high-ranking security officials were the main causes of the high casualties of the attack. The Taliban also carried out several offensive and bombing in Kabul.
The rapid deterioration of security in the North was seen an ultimate downfall of Afghanistan’s relative security that existed in some parts of the country.
Not to forget, our security forces had countable achievements against the Taliban as well. They took back control of the occupied districts quickly. Also, a number of high-profile leaders of ISIS in Afghanistan including Shahidullah Shahid and Hafiz Saeed were killed in a drone strike in Nangarhar alongside Gul Zaman, ISIS’s second in-command, and 49 other insurgents in Achin district of Nangarhar.
The increase in Taliban offensives has many reasons. The cunctation in introducing a National Defence minister and vacancy of this key security post is said to be one of the major causes. The government has suggested 3 figures for this post but none of them were able to pass the parliament’s voting. Masoom Stanekzai, nominee for the Defence Ministry post, witnessed an attack on the parliament on the very day of his introduction to the parliament. The MPs in part perceived the attack as his incapability in acquiring the post and rejected him. The national unity government should immediately introduce a new and capable person for this post. The vacancy of this seat has given a rise in rivalry between the generals. This is considerably undermining blood and sweats of the Afghan National Army in the fight against the Taliban. In the meantime, absence of a defense minister has led to poor communications between security officials and the military units stationed sent to the battlefields.
In spite of that, the National Unity Government is pursuing the policy of reaching a peaceful settlement of the Afghan conflict with the Taliban. The Taliban, though active on battlegrounds, have been shuttling from Urumqi to Islamabad and to other cities in preparations for peace talks. The first official meeting between the Afghan Taliban and Afghan government was held in Murre, a tourist resort near Islamabad. Mid-ranking Taliban officials including Maulavi Abdul Latif, minister of Agriculture during Taliban, Mohammed Abbas Akhund, Health minister during Taliban and Mullah Yahya participated in the meeting as the representative of the Haqqani network. Representatives from major political parties inside Afghanistan and the Afghan High Peace Council members participated in the meeting. Taliban were told to prepare a list of demands so that both sides may negotiate over them. In the negotiations for a peace deal, the government should protect the achievements of the past decade. Undoubtedly, pursuing the peace process and finding a peaceful solution to the Afghan war is the best option on the table for now.
Lastly, the worsening security has had subduing effects on Afghans. Foreign investors are pulling out of the country. Unemployment is rising; the value of Afghan currency has dropped in the international exchange rate. The popularity of National Unity Government has dropped significantly. The attrition rate of Afghan soldiers is unbelievably high as Afghan soldiers are leaving the army and police ranks. The current state of insecurity in the country is the source of most of the current challenges in Afghanistan. Finding an immediate solution to this dilemma should be government’s top priority.