The Taliban envoy who had travelled to a Kabul house that fateful night, ostensibly to discuss peace, carried a more deadly message inside his turban, which murdered the head of High Peace Council (HPC) Professor Burhanuddin Rabbani. This dangerous business of delineating friend from enemy is getting harder. So is the challenge of discerning Taliban approaches to end this protracted conflict.
This year in Afghanistan, the traditional “fighting season,” with the start of spring offensive, is especially intense and significant.
The attack on parliament, which took the lives of a woman and child and injured dozens more in the holy month of Ramadan, came in the wake of important news from other battlefields. This year, the Taliban are advancing on some key fronts including Kunduz and Faryab provinces in the north and Helmand province in the south.
However, there has been much more talking this year too. Over the past six months, Taliban representatives have sat down in Qatar, Dubai, Oslo, Islamabad and in Chinese cities with Afghan government officials, Afghan women, Western diplomats and aid officials.
We’ve seen Taliban efforts to reach out to women with new approaches, described as being within Islamic law, on women’s rights to work, to be educated and to participate in politics. “They seem to be trying to change their image,” assesses an Afghan woman’s activist with knowledge of the discussions. “They’re trying to convey a message that they’re ready to govern.”
However, it is believed that the Taliban’s fundamental ideology regarding women will not change – their past and present practices demonstrate the very fact. Taliban’s fake tendency towards women’s rights is no more than a flash in the pan.
To the Afghans’ unmitigated chagrin, the peace talk holds no sway regarding the security situation in Afghanistan. People lose their lives in every corner of the country in suicide bombings, Improvised Explosive Device (IED) and attacks carried out by the Taliban insurgents. Almost everyone, from the famous figures to the simple citizens, suffers from the terminal illness of terrorism and s/he is exposed to the dangers that would possibly target them in one way or another and if they survive, they would be affected by the trauma of war and violence. If the Taliban are honest in negotiation for peace, they will have to put an end to the indiscriminate killings of the civilians and shrink the battles against the Afghan government. However, the militants have escalated their offensive against combatants and non-combatants alike.
Pakistan recently hosted the first-ever direct talks between the Afghan government and Taliban representatives at the popular tourist resort of Murree as part of its efforts to put an end to over a decade-old conflict in the war-torn country. Senior officials from Pakistan, China and the United States also attended the closed-door talks suggesting that the Murree process had the backing of all major international players.
During the talks, the Afghan side demanded immediate ceasefire from the Afghan Taliban. However, the Taliban reportedly agreed to cease fire if Islamabad and Beijing become “guarantors” to ensure that a “United National Government” will be formed in Afghanistan. Another official said China is also ready to provide guarantees if all the negotiating parties accept this arrangement. Following the Murree talks, China had hinted at playing a more proactive role in brokering a peace deal between the Afghan government and the Taliban.
A statement issued by the Chinese foreign ministry said Beijing was ready to work with relevant parties and play a constructive role in achieving broad and inclusive peace and reconciliation in Afghanistan.
However, it is believed that the Taliban’s negotiators do not represent all the parties, involved in militancy in Afghanistan, such as Haqqani network and Quetta Council. In another item, since the militants have been divided into several parties, the Taliban’s reclusive leader Mullah Omar does not carry much weight recently. The death of a member of Peace Council in Central Maidan Wardak province in Kabul by unknown gunmen on Tuesday night bespeaks of the militants’ disagreement over the negotiation.
After all, the Taliban are facing a new challenge from a small but increasingly significant presence of fighters declaring allegiance to Islamic State. A number of the Afghan political figures believe that since the self-styled Islamic State group poses a threat to the Taliban militants, the Taliban give the Afghan government a green light to sit on the table of negotiation. In other words, it is too late to discuss peace with the Taliban leaders on the grounds that the old militants are being replaced with the new ones namely Islamic State group. Hence, in case of having a fruitful discussion with the Taliban, the proxy war will continue by the IS militants and the backers will invest on this group. Therefore, there will be no peace even if the Taliban lay down their arms. But the question is that will the Taliban succumb to the demand of Afghan officials and ceasefire?
It would be naïve of one to answer this question positively since both the ideologue and mercenary Taliban groups are trained and supported to fight not to make peace. To put it succinctly, the Taliban seem to be the pawn placed by political masterminds in political games and cannot decide on their own. In case of protesting against their supporters, the IS group, rather than peace, is likely to be the Taliban’s alternative.