In response to the deteriorated security situation in the North, Gen. Abdul Rashid Dostum, Afghanistan’s first Vice President, and Atta Mohammad Noor, governor of Balkh province have formed an alliance to jointly fight the Taliban and other militant groups operating in northern Afghanistan. The two prominent figures have said their supporters would join forces to contain the Taliban’s resurgence in the north and support government forces in the ongoing battle against the Taliban. The unexpected alliance is coming at a time when the Taliban and its allied militant groups are gaining ground in some northern provinces in the fight against Afghan National Security Forces (ANSF). In recent weeks, the ANSF has launched extensive military operations against the militants in the north to expel the Taliban’s spring offensive launched this spring.

The announcement of the alliance suggests that the two leaders have rightly realized the nature of the threats posed to the Northern provinces. Gen. Dostum and Gov. Atta were bitter rivals in the past competing over the Northern provinces as their power bases. The two men also belonged to the two key rival sides of the last year controversial presidential elections, which were bitterly fought and lasted for several months.

The formation of the alliance is viewed as a significant move from the two key power brokers in boosting local resistance against the offensives from the Taliban and other militant groups. The situation in the North is critical. Many of Northern provinces that were relatively secure in the past are now scenes of intense battles between government forces and the Taliban and its affiliated groups. The shift of the insurgency to the north is attributed to presence of thousands of foreign militants in different parts of Afghanistan particularly in the north. Hundreds of foreign militants are believed to be stationed in the Northern provinces, teaming up forces with the Taliban in the fight against government forces. Many of the militants are driven out of the Taliban’s safe haven in North Waziristan after Pakistan launched a military offensive in the region last year.

The northern parts of Afghanistan are viewed strategically important for not only for foreign militant groups and the newly emerging Islamic State group but also for the Taliban. The militants include Chechens, Uzbeks, Uighurs and Tajik citizens who aim to promote militancy in their own nations. The Islamic State group also attempts to expand its influence beyond Afghanistan and further to the Central Asian nations. Attempting to expand the war front and to counter influence of groups like Islamic State, the Taliban has focused on provinces like Badakhshan, Kunduz and other northern provinces. The opening of a new front in the war by the Taliban is also aimed at stretching out the government forces into many war fronts so to undermine its strength in countering the insurgency. There are also many conspiracy theories over the roles of key regional and global players in shift of the war zone to the north of the country.

The formation of the alliance between Gen. Dostum and Gov. Atta Mohammad Noor is hugely significant in countering the Taliban offensive in the north. The two men have ultimate influence in many key Northern provinces including the most insecure provinces where the war is going on. The Northern provinces are power bases of Junbesh- Milli and Jamiat-e Islami, to which Dostum and Atta Muhammad Noor belong. Given the rising threats to the northern and central parts of Afghanistan, former members of the so-called northern alliance would be inevitably forced to make a unified stance against the Taliban and other militants and protect the people. The Taliban resurgence in the northern and central provinces cannot be countered without a significant role from the top-level political leaders in facilitating local resistances against the Taliban.

The rising threats from the militant groups in the northern and central parts of Afghanistan could be only the tip of a larger iceberg. The Islamic State group is actively recruiting and extensively expanding. So far, the Islamic State group has mainly focused on the eastern provinces, while creeping to other areas in the South and North. The Northern part of the country is believed to be a key target for the Islamic State group and other foreign jihadi groups given its vicinity to the Central Asia. The militants are attempting to create a permanent safe haven for the militant groups in the North so to be able to provide logistical support for their operations not only inside the country but also into the Central Asian nations. During his visit to Moscow, former president Hamid Karzai said that the militants aim to use the northern Afghanistan as a launch pad for extending their activities into the northern neighbors.

Whether the militant groups will be able to create a safe haven in the north or not, it is likely that the militant groups enhance their efforts for controlling key areas in the north. The multiplicity of the jihadist groups and their rising threats to the once secure areas in the country will further exacerbate security conditions in central and Northern provinces. Given the current trend of the extremist groups’ recruitment and expansion, the government will not be able to diffuse the insurgency in the north in a short timeframe. In a foreseeable period of time, security threats for Northern provinces would further increase as the militants will attempt to expand their presence in these provinces. There is need for promoting local resistance against the militant groups by former jihadi groups led by key political figures loyal to the central government.

The former jihadi leaders should need to act decisively for activating local protection units aimed at supporting Afghan government forces in protecting the people. For now, the prospect of the war against the militant groups would remain uncertain for the years to come. As it is the case now, the government will inevitably need backing of local resistance units to fight against the Taliban and other militant groups. All parties including the central government and its key stakeholders need to be prepared for any unexpected situations.