Editor in Chief: Moh. Reza Huwaida Thursday, March 28th, 2024

Peace Prospect in Context of the Bloody Spring Fight

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Peace Prospect in Context of the Bloody Spring Fight

The Taliban’s bloody spring offensive has sparked fears about the peace talks with the Taliban. Instead of drumming up for resumptions of peace negotiations, now all sides have set eyes on the development of the war events in the country. Some months ago, there were optimisms for resumption of peace negotiations aimed at reaching a peace deal with the Taliban. Also the rare peace discussions between Taliban delegation and representatives of the Afghan government in Qatar were a clear sign of the Taliban’s willingness for entering negotiations with the government of Afghanistan. The government of Afghanistan hoped to be able to start formal talks with Taliban representatives immediately, and the Afghan officials had indicated of start of peace talks within weeks.

However, the resurgence of the Taliban and the expanding war is virtually meaning less chances of successful resumption of formal talks in near future. The militant groups have launched a deadly campaign in many provinces and the war against the Afghan National Security Forces (ANSF) is expanding. In at least ten provinces, the ANSF are engaged in fierce battles with the militant groups. The casualties of the Taliban fighting on the ground are phenomenal, the reports say. According to NATO officials in Afghanistan, the ANSF casualties have also raised sharply compared to the same period least year. In absence of the US-led NATO forces, an even bitter summer campaign is awaiting the country as the militant groups are struggling to have gains on the ground.

The Taliban have been able this year to expand the war fronts in different corners of the country. However, the Afghan army and police have been fighting quite efficiently against the militants’ offensive depriving the Taliban of taking grounds. Despite the fierce fighting the Taliban have not been able to take any strategic areas or key districts during this year’s spring offensive. The Taliban’s major objective in this bitter campaign is to take grounds particularly districts in key provinces to set up another front against the Afghan National Security Forces (ANSF). In fact, the fight for the Taliban is a test of their ability for taking ground and obtaining substantial gains before any kind of peace talks with the government of Afghanistan. The ANSF have been able so far to keep the Taliban at bay and prevent them from considerable successes on the ground.

Taking ground would be a considerable leverage for the Taliban on table of peace negotiations. Many evidences suggested in recent months that the Taliban were preparing for peace talks with the government of Afghanistan. However, now the expanding war is meaning that the group is testing its last-ditch campaign in hopes of some remarkable gains against the ANSF so to use it in bargaining terms of a peace deal with the government. if the Taliban fails to have any considerable gains from their ongoing bloody campaign, it will be a major boost for the government of Afghanistan as it will have the upper hand in talks and will be better positioned to convince the Taliban that they have no chance of military victory on the ground and had better to end the conflict through a peaceful settlement.

Despite no considerable victory for the Taliban so far, there potential risk of the militant groups making some gains against an army and police forces who have shouldered the burden of the war this year alone. As the NATO has ended its long-run battle against the Taliban, the ANSF are now battling the insurgency without any considerable assistance in forms of air support, logistics or intelligence. This has put considerable pressures on the ANSF this year making them extremely vulnerable to the new phase of the war. The Taliban have already expanded the war and opened new fronts in once relatively stable provinces. The expansion of the war is straining ability of the ANSF, and it is feared it gets overwhelmed in a heightened anti-insurgency campaign in the coming months and years.

The Taliban spring offensive is not a good sign for the efforts to kick-start peace negotiations with the Taliban. With the expanding war the hopes for peace is faltering. The expanding war is virtually dooming away the understandings achieved between the two sides so far and the mediations of other involved parties. The government of Afghanistan spent months in heightened diplomatic efforts to prepare the ground for peace negotiations. The efforts yielded tangible results as many of the major players of the conflict in Afghanistan pledged the Afghan government to fully back its peace efforts aimed at ending the conflict. Including among them was Pakistan and China who is believed to play remarkable roles in helping the government of Afghanistan to persuade the Taliban for a peace settlement.

However, now there also seems to be problems on the political front. Pakistan, who is believed to have the ultimate influence on the Taliban leadership, has again raised concerns for Indian role in Afghanistan. Pakistan has long been demanding Pakistani Taliban leader Mullah Fazlullah who Islamabad says is operating in eastern Afghanistan. This is while the Afghan government maintains that it will not allow any actors to operate against Pakistan’s interests from the Afghan soil. Any such differences or lack of understandings between Afghanistan and Pakistan would harm peace and stability in both countries particularly the peace efforts in Afghanistan. It took a long time for Kabul and Islamabad to overcome mistrusts and rapidly develop mutual relations focused on peace efforts. For peace and economic development in both countries, Islamabad and Kabul have no choice but to overcome existing problems and start a new era of cooperation.

On the war ground, there is no alternative for the government of Afghanistan to defeat the militant groups militarily in the first hand, and then start negotiations with them. Any major ground victory for the Taliban will ruin the prospect of any peace with the insurgent groups. Therefore, the government needs to wage a ruthless war against the insurgents to convince them that table of negotiations is the only viable option for ending the conflict in the country.

Abdul Ahad Bahrami is the permanent writer of the Daily Outlook Afghanistan. He can be reached at ahad.bahrami@gmail.com

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