With the Islamic State groups or Daesh claiming a major militant attack in Afghanistan, a fundamental question is now hovering in minds: does the Islamic State group currently have any presence in Afghanistan? And what will be the future hold for Afghanistan if the group emerges as key militant player on the ground in the country. So far the Islamic State group has no major and robust presence in Afghanistan to be able to openly challenge Afghanistan National Security Forces (ANSF) or the Taliban fighters. However, there are reports of the group’s presence in some provinces and recruiting extremist militants to expand its influence in Afghanistan.

Several high-ranking Afghan officials, including Abdul Rashid Dostum - First Vice President, Haji Mohammad Mohaqiq - Second Vice Chief Executive and Ajmal Obaid Abedi - spokesperson for the President have confirmed presence of Daesh in Afghanistan. The 31 passengers’ abduction in Zabul province are attributed to the Islamic State; however, despite some evidences, the claim still remains controversial as so far there is no consensus if the group is behind the abduction. The Islamic State group claimed responsibility for the deadly Jalalabad bombing, which killed dozens of security personnel and civilians withdrawing salary from a bank branch in the city. Shortly after the incident, President Ashraf Ghani attributed the attack to the group based on their own claim. The Taliban also denied responsibility for the Jalalabad bombing.

Also, local residents in some southern and eastern provinces have confirmed presence of foreign militants who are said to be fully equipped and armed. In a recent controversy, there were allegations of Afghan government’s donations to displaced people mistakenly having reached to the families of the Islamic State militants. Despite all these claims and evidences, a number of former government officials including former president Hamid Karzai and former head of the National Directorate for Security (NDS) as well as some experts have rejected presence of the Islamic States group in Afghanistan.

With the government of Afghanistan trying to reach out to the Taliban for resuming peace negotiations, there are doubts that the government may be trying to differentiate between the pro-peace and those who are vehemently opposing talks with the Afghan government Taliban as ‘good’ and ‘bad’ Taliban in order to enter talks with the group. President Ghani’s recent quick reaction – which is unclear if was based on intelligence or the IS claim – to the Jalalabad bombing further sparked doubts regarding government’s approach towards the Taliban. However, if true, the scenario may be to prepare the ground for bringing the pro-peace Taliban members to table of negotiations with the government of Afghanistan. In this case, an split in the Taliban would be probable if the hardliners in the group do not choose to follow the leadership of the group in entering peace negotiations with the Afghan government.

The Taliban and its affiliated groups have been the dominant militant front fighting the US-led NATO forces and the government of Afghanistan. As an umbrella group, the Taliban had allegiance of many other major and minor militant groups such as Hikmatyar’s Hizb-e Islami and Haqqani network based in North Waziristan in its struggle to establish an Islamic Emirate in Afghanistan. However, the Islamic State group in Iraq and Syrian is now the most ambitious militant group in the world campaigning a brutal campaign and attracting jihadists from worldwide. In Afghanistan, the emergence of the Islamic State, locally called Daesh, is posing a very serious challenge to the Taliban’s supremacy as an umbrella militant group seeking to dominate and influence all militant groups in Afghanistan and Pakistan.

The Islamic State’s creeping presence in Afghanistan will not bode well for the Taliban dominance in the jihadi activities in Afghanistan as well. Perhaps this is a main reason behind Taliban’s recent inclinations towards resuming peace negotiations with the government they fought in last fourteen years. The Taliban and the Islamic State have openly opposed each other. As the IS is in finding foothold in Afghanistan, the Taliban leadership sees themselves direly vulnerable. The Taliban would quickly lose ground in some areas to the IS if the IS manages to recruit Taliban members and fighters to its ranks. All these have come as an alarm for the Taliban leadership which has openly expressed opposition to the Islamic State. Therefore, the group seems to be consolidating its rank and leadership against the threat of the Islamic State in Afghanistan.

In addition to Afghanistan, some offshoots of the Tehrik-e Taliban Pakistan have also joined the Islamic State. The Taliban see them in direct collusion with the Islamic State in Afghanistan in the future. Most of the jihadi groups that are active in Afghanistan and Pakistan are considered as allegiant to the main Taliban group and its supreme leader Mullah Mohammad Omar. However, the fact is that in parts of Afghanistan, many Taliban senior members have joined the Islamic State. The Taliban seem to be increasingly unable to control its sub groups and field commanders on the ground and prevent them from joining the newly emerging Islamic State group. The Taliban leadership fears if the Islamic State group grows powerful in Afghanistan, it will not be aligned with the Taliban in objectives and activities on the ground. Given this, if the Islamic State is going to get more influence and power in Afghanistan, the chance is for the Taliban to split into smaller factions and the main group being forced to confront IS.

The increasing presence of the Islamic State will further compound the security uncertainty in Afghanistan and the situation would further get chaotic. What is clear is that IS has some level of presence in Afghanistan, as suggested by government officials and the group’s ground activities. However, the Taliban and the IS have so far avoided confronting each other directly. But the fact is that the Taliban will not be able to prevent its more hardline members and fighters on the ground from joining to the IS ranks. In this situation, the game changer would be the Taliban’s decision to enter peace talks with government of Afghanistan or continue to fight militarily alongside the Islamic State.