Editor in Chief: Moh. Reza Huwaida Friday, March 29th, 2024

Unemployment Poses Threats to State's Long-term Stability

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Unemployment Poses Threats to State's Long-term Stability

Thirteen years have passed after the fall of the Taliban and millions of dollars have been spent in Afghanistan on various fields, the country still lacks the most fundamental source of sustainable poverty reduction, decent employment. There is still no national labor force survey, employment strategy or youth employment strategy in the country.

In the last thirteen years, Afghanistan made great progress in the field of education. Universities and schools are built, and unprecedented numbers of boys and girls have enrolled since then, but only to find themselves unemployed after graduation. Unfortunately, the government does not have any comprehensive strategies yet in this regard.

The recent studies indicate that there have been huge decrease in job opportunities and great increase in unemployment rate since the international troops started withdrawing from the country. It was inevitable that thousands of civilian employees would be made redundant as NATO’s military operation in Afghanistan draws down after 13 years of bold commitment in bringing peace and stability, by giving thousands of sacrifices.

After the disengagement of foreign troops in the battlefield, not only the security situation deteriorated but there is also a sudden spike in unemployment that has left towns like Bagram, adjacent to Bagram Air Field, contending with poverty, rising crime and drug use. Now there are great concerns about a possible boom for insurgent recruitment among the young and jobless.

The NATO-led International Security Assistance Force had about 800 military bases across the country. But it has been rapidly shutting them down since late 2012 while the country's economy is heavily dependent on international aid and military contracts.

The studies also warn that unemployment has serious negative implications on country's social and political instability and contributes in the growing rate of insecurity situation. As of now, most of the insurgency fighting against the Afghan government is comprised of the local jobless people who have no other source of income or job opportunities to ensure the financial expenses of their families.

News reports show that the increasing rate of unemployment in the region adds to the backwardness and instability. The official unemployment rate in Afghanistan is 60 percent with only over 30,000 workers were laid off from Bagram Airfield and had now joined the unemployed pool. These numbers are likely to rise as international troops and organizations leave Afghanistan completely or reduce their development program activities.

The news reports also argue that due to increase in insecurity and persistent Taliban attacks on foreign aid workers and civilians, there is great fair growing among them to be able to deliver their services with ultimate safety. There is already great increase in rate of unemployment since the international organizations decreased the level of their development programs due to rise in insecurity. It left a direct impact on job opportunities, as Afghanistan itself suffers due to lack of industrial factories.

In order to tackle this critical crisis, the government must focus on activating the underground resources and build profitable factories. A single factory, depending on the level of investment, can create thousands of new jobs for the unemployed youths. The initiative will not only decrease the level of unemployment and looming rate of poverty but also help the government to be self-reliant.

Instead of letting the local communities loose in drug production, the government can offer best possible agricultural activities. The agricultural program activities will not only decrease the level of unemployment, poverty, social and political crisis in the cities to the towns but it will contribute a lot more in a long-term sustainable growth of our economy as well.

At the moment, this is the most comprehensive steps for the government to take initiatives from agricultural and mineral resources for the better and sustainable growth of the country's economical situation. Yet the reality is that youth unemployment may well pose a bigger risk to our future than all the other ground threats combined.

So, it is about time for the government to set a plan in response to the ground paralyzing crisis by adding in place an industrial policy that can to a full extend ensure a sustainable and rapid growth in the manufacturing capacity of our state. 

As of now, the country is totally dependent on the neighboring countries to a large extent. In spite of the ground available resources, the country still imports gas and electricity from the neighboring countries. There should be some restrictions on imported products so that the country itself starts producing those products.

This can happen under the customs duties on imported goods or outright import bans. In the absence of such market protection, industry will never flourish in the country, but this kind of approach is essential for the well growth of global financial and trade organizations; particularly for the development of national industrial growth.

In addition, it is worth realizing that why they shouldn’t ban or decrease the level of imported products in the country? Let’s turn to the national products of our own country, like drinkable products of juices and other products.

Industries in the country create job opportunities for the unemployed youth. Let’s just imagine for a while that our government has overcome the electricity power and gas shortages within its own state and the security situation has improved, manufacturing companies are activated, job opportunities are created and the country produces the most needed products itself which are now imported from the neighboring countries, then it is very certain that Afghanistan will rock in peace and progress. There will be cost-effective products for living standards and hundreds of other usages in daily life. The most interesting point is that every citizen will enjoy any product manufactured within the country, with affordable prices.

However, at this point of time, Afghanistan is undermined by the convergence of demographic, social, economic and of course, political and insecurity challenges, while the rise in unemployment has become another paralyzing problem.

Despite, the involvement of international community in the country contributing in the well being of security situation in the next more years, things look more fragile after that. The international funding commitments for Afghanistan currently run to 2017, but that timeline had assumed the insurgency would lose steam by then, allowing ANSF to sweat off.

If that is not possible, the annual $4-6 billion bill for the security forces is simply unsustainable. This week's London Conference is an opportunity to secure much greater contributions from regional powers that have the most at stake if Afghanistan does fall apart once more in the hands of terrorism, like Taliban and the ISIS who have taken another turn to upset peace in the unstable countries, like Afghanistan.

China one of the world's largest economies with a good relationship with Afghanistan can make greatest contributions in the field of industrial manufactures. The civil society must streamline its programs in the most convenient ways to persuade the international community for a long-term investment in various sectors in order to safe Afghanistan from Taliban.

In this context, this analysis calls for a longer term approach to socio-economic development in Afghanistan, in which employment and decent work take a central role. While this is indeed a major challenge given the economic and political uncertainties facing the country, a balance needs to be found between the urgency of stabilization and creating more sustainable jobs that lift people and their families out of poverty.

Abdul Samad Haidari is the permanent writer of the Daily outlook Afghanistan. He can be reached at abdulsamad.haidari96@gmail.com

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