KABUL - Over 10,000 loyalists of the Islamic State of Iraq and Syria (ISIS) terrorist group are based in the remote regions of Afghanistan and Pakistan, a new project report.
The project by the UK-based Royal United Services Institute (RUSI) has been launched amid concerns that the loyalists of the terror group have stepped up efforts to expand foothold in the region, including swaths of southern and central Asia under the terror group’s so-called Khurasan province.
Funded by the Smith Richardson Foundation, the research project has recently been launched, drawing on interviews with Daesh members, village elders, members of other insurgent organisations in the area – mainly Taliban and Tehrik-e-Taliban Pakistan (TTP) – and local-level government officials.
In a commentary, Dr. Antonio Giustozzi, Associate Fellow, RUSI, has written there are around 7,000–8,500 Daesh members based on Afghan soil and 2,000–3,000 based in Pakistan, citing different sources (Daesh cadres themselves, Afghan security sources, Pakistani security sources and Iranian Pasdaran sources).
These figures are inclusive of all active Daesh members, both fighters and support elements, according to the commentary piece, adding that the loyalists of the terror started popping up in the second half of 2014 all over Afghanistan as a result of commanders of the Taliban, Hizb-i Islami and other armed groups switching sides.
As the loyalists of the terror group are struggling to establish strong bases while in a defensive role, they continue to face resistance from the Afghan Taliban as well militants belonging to Tehrik-e-Taliban Pakistan who seems to be preparing an attack against them, a move that could slow the recruitment of the terror group, according to the research report.
The research report, citing ISIS sources, also revealed that the loyalists of the terror group have been coming under pressure from some of its donors to increase activities in Central Asia, using its well-developed contacts with Central Asian jihadist groups in northern Afghanistan.
“Early findings for the new research project suggest that Daesh has established a foothold in Afghanistan and is still growing. However, its advance more closely resembles a hurdle race than a triumphant march. So far, Daesh has been mainly troubling the Taliban, but it is unlikely that it will remain focused on competing with other insurgent groups,” the commentary piece concludes.
It also adds ” In order to establish its jihadist credentials vis-à-vis donors and potential recruits, Daesh will have to increasingly target the Afghan government, and Russian, Iranian and Western interests. But does it have the ability to hurt these actors? For that, it will need capabilities that it has not yet demonstrated and not just ‘numbers’ of fighters.” (KP)