The debate about reducing significant number of Afghan National Security Forces continues in the US. The Obama Administration plans to cut number of ANSF from 350,000 to 230,000 by 2015. Due to the global financial crisis and lack of interest in NATO capitals for bearing the financial burden of keeping ANSF, the plan to reduce a third of ANSF starting gradually from 2015 to 2017 remains unconfirmed.
Questions were raised on Thursday, during the confirmation hearing of President Obama’s nominee for the Central Command Chief, General Lloyd Austin before the Senate Armed Services Committee. He said keeping the larger-size force would certainly reassure the Afghans. It would also reassure our NATO allies that we remain committed.”
Chairman of the Committee Senator Levin said the next CENTCOM commander would play an important role in shaping America’s enduring partnership with Afghanistan after 2014. However, he rightly expressed serious concerns about the proposed downsizing of ANSF. He said any future reductions in the size of Afghan forces should be based on security conditions in Afghanistan at that time. Significant challenges to Afghanistan's long-term stability remain. Among the greatest threats to stability are the safe havens for Afghan insurgents across the Pakistan border, which the government of Pakistan has failed to disrupt or eliminate.”
The Karzai Administration seems to be completely unbothered about the Obama Administration’s plan. Though Afghan Defense Ministry officials have expressed deep concerns, the Government needs to persuade the US and its NATO allies not to cut the number of Afghan troops as our security challenges remain fragile. Unless there are strong signs of stability after a smooth transfer of power in Kabul in 2014, any confirmation of such a plan could fuel the perception that Afghanistan will be left on its own after the US withdrawal. American military commanders from field in Afghanistan have cautioned against the plan.
The downsizing plan is a conceptual model based on certain assumptions such as improved security and a possible deal with Taliban militants for a political settlement, which are uncertain. Meanwhile, there are no alternative options. Laying off over 120,000 well-trained combat veterans in 2015 in a dim job market could cause more of security risk, than the current calculations.
After the withdrawal of bulk of US troops by 2014, the cost of war in Afghanistan will be reduced heavily, and the Obama Administration’s plan to cut strength of ANSF does not make sense, given the fact that talks with Taliban is the only assumption for improved security justifying a move that can not only derail the hard-won achievements of the US and its NATO allies in Afghanistan during the last decade, but risk Afghanistan’s decent into chaos becoming home to international terrorists once again.