The trilateral summit in UK hosted by Prime Minister Cameron ended with a commitment between Afghanistan and Pakistan “to take all necessary measures to achieve the goal of a peace settlement over the next six months”.
Without a clear roadmap on how this ‘milestone’ is going to be achieved within the ‘deadline’, all commitments at the trilateral summit seems another exercise in vain. All sides affirmed support for the opening of a Taliban office in Doha for the purpose of negotiations with the High Peace Council. They called on the Taliban to take steps necessary to open an office and to enter into dialogue. It suggests the deadlock on the Karzai Administration’s conditions for such an office—Taliban to involve in direct talks with Kabul—remains unchanged.
Despite weeks of Kabul-Doha talks, no progress has been in this regard. Qatar has not agreed on the demands of Karzai Administration that the office be closed down within six months if Taliban do not start direct talks with HPC. Taliban have categorically rejected direct talks with Kabul. Some of their leaders from the political commission of the Quetta Shura have even said the HPC in its current form cannot be taken seriously as a negotiator. At the trilateral summit, apparently Pakistan has officially confirmed support for Kabul’s conditions on the Doha office. It is unclear how it can change the Taliban attitude.
High level delegation from both countries were in attendance, where UK hosts for the first time both the political and security leadership from Afghanistan and Pakistan, with Presidents Karzai and Zardari, Foreign Ministers, Chiefs of Army Staff, Chiefs of Intelligence and the Chairman of the High Peace Council. It seemed an exercise before the summit. It is the third meeting of the trilateral summit started last summer, the first held in Kabul in July, followed by meetings at the sidelines of the UN General Assembly in September.
The summit also gave yet another inexact schedule for the Ulema Conference in “early March”. Earlier enthusiastically brought up during the much-hyped visit of HPC Chairman Salahuddin Rabbani in Islamabad, the Ulema Conference has been postponed twice. Kabul had proposed names of several top Pakistani clerics from the religious political parties for the conference, which the Pakistan government and security establishment have opposed. The goal of the conference is to get a Fatwa by renowned scholars and clerics, most of whom in Pakistan publicly support Taliban, against the suicide attacks and urge for peace talks. A Taliban statement referring from Mullah Omar warned the Pakistani Ulema not to attend the conference. It has been a proposal from Kabul to which Islamabad has so far shown little effectiveness. A commitment in London is not optimistic to believe for a change of attitude.
The third significant commitment was to “strengthen co-ordination of Taliban detainee releases from Pakistani custody in support of the peace and reconciliation process.”
The progress between the two countries with release of Taliban by Pakistan has been not clear. Kabul has no clue on whereabouts of all those Taliban prisoners released last month. Pakistan has expectations in return and further cooperation. The recent progress on training of ANSF is one aspect. Prior to the summit, Defense Minister Bismillah Khan visited Pakistan and met their Army Chief General Ashfaq Kayani. The Government has responded positively to the long-awaiting offer from Pakistan to train Afghan National Security Forces.
However, the summit fell short of any significant discussion of the Strategic Partnership Agreement committed in September last year. The two sides have agreed that negotiations would commence with meetings of Foreign, Interior and Commerce Ministers during February to take forward trade and border management issues. The two sides also agreed to take early steps to resolve the question of refugee returns.
We believe if Afghanistan and Pakistan cannot cooperate on mutual issues of security and other areas in meetings in Islamabad or Kabul, a summit in UK or Turkey cannot bring a real change in attitude. Core of the problem is in contradictory strategies. The recent diplomatic and media excitement on Pakistan’s so-called “shift of strategy” has once again proved unless both sides address root causes of issues, real progress cannot be made.
For a long-term strategic solution, Britain should focus on the root cause of the shaky AfPak relations in helping improve cooperation on both sides—the Durand Line. It is not only important for the current conflict in Afghanistan, but long-term regional stability, peace and security. The border has never been officially recognized by Kabul, which is the root cause of most AfPak mutual issues.