The meeting between Presidents Karzai and Obama in Washington has not cleared the uncertain questions about the war in Afghanistan after 2014. They did not mention any specific number of American troops to stay post-2014. President Karzai did indicate that he will ask the Afghan people about immunity of US forces who remain after the bulk of withdrawal. There were some vague messages for Taliban from President Obama, who said there will not be reconciliation unless militants renounce violence, end ties with Al-Qaeda and accept the constitution of Afghanistan.
President Obama said the war is winding down and American forces will take support role by spring, as Afghan National Security Forces take lead of security control. He said “with respect to post-2014, we’ve got two goals —Number one, to train, assist, and advise Afghan forces so that they can maintain their own security; and number two, making sure that we can continue to go after remnants of al-Qaeda or other affiliates that might threaten our homeland. We have arrangements like this with countries all around the world, and nowhere do we have any kind of security agreement with a country without immunity for our troops.”
It has been clear that full withdrawal is not an option. But the number of troops post-2014 makes a big difference. Washington media leaks indicate that the Obama Administration wants as low as 3000 troops, while American military commanders from Afghanistan and the leadership in Pentagon have proposed between 9000 to 15000 troops. With the 3000 figure, how can a sophisticated counterterrorism mission be conducted? When Special Forces will depend on aerial drone strikes against precise militant hideouts, it cannot be carried with sufficient ground support on logistics and intelligence.
How can they conduct any training programs for ANSF with 3000 troops remaining after 2014? These questions remained unanswered by President Obama, while Karzai was clear. He promised immunity, and mentioned approval of the Strategic Partnership Agreement by the Afghan people—through parliament and the Loya Jirga—which called for continued presence of American forces after 2014.
President Obama said by the end of next year, 2014, the transition will be complete –Afghans will have full responsibility for their security, and this war will come to a responsible end. Starting this spring, our troops will have a different mission — training, advising, and assisting Afghan forces. Though he promised a responsible withdrawal saying, “in the coming months I’ll announce the next phase of our drawdown — a responsible drawdown that protects the gains our troops have made.”
He welcomed the recent steps by Pakistan releasing Taliban leaders for talks with Kabul. President Obama said, “We welcome recent steps that have been taken in that regard, and we’ll look for more tangible steps — because a stable and secure Afghanistan is in the interest not only of the Afghan people and the United States, but of the entire region.”
Further diplomatic spat is expected between Kabul and Washington in coming months because President Karzai again insisted on full transfer of all detention centers to Afghan control. It is unlikely that the US troops will handover notorious militants in Bagram.
There was a sense of control inserted in the Washington press conference about talks with the Taliban when both presidents said they have agreed on allowing a Taliban office in Qatar, where the Taliban will engage in direct talks with the representatives of the Afghan High Council for Peace.
With clear message to Taliban about continued presence of the US troops after 2014 which is a popular demand of the people of Afghanistan, there remains less hopes of any significant success in reconciliation talks. Taliban leadership might split, but there will be elements who will continue violence and providing safe havens and support to international terror networks like Al-Qaeda. Therefore, the Obama Administration should keep in mind this fact while making decision on number and nature of the US troops’ mission in Afghanistan after 2014.