Latest development shows some realistic progress in the efforts of peace talks with insurgents. The United Nations Security Council on Monday announced to ease travel restrictions on some Taliban leaders in the black list of sanctions. Chairman of the High Peace Council Salahudin Rabbani has been in New York this week trying to persuade members of the UNSC for the move, which resulted in unanimous support of the international community to the peace plan of the Council.
On the other hand, Taliban are sending a delegation to attend an intra-Afghan meeting in Paris this week. Of course we do not expect any breakthrough anytime soon, but it seems the efforts about which drums were beaten high has not just taken a slow start. Real challenges remain ahead. It could be possible that recent Taliban moves; from the opening of an office in and sending representatives to Doha in Qatar and willingness to talk with the US, to their latest participation in Paris are part of the change in their mindset that could positively lead towards a breakthrough.
However, it is essential to see the motives behind the change of mind, not the moves. Taliban know it as a matter of fact that when the bulk of NATO troops withdraw from Afghanistan in 2014, there will be a strong Afghan National Security Forces. The insurgency has significantly weakened in the last three years in once-the-heartland of insurgency in the South. The increasing deadly attacks and new bloody tactics of suicide bombing from putting the explosives into their turbans all the way down to underwear; it all show their violent retaliation through such tactics given the fact they have lost ground in areas that matter most.
In recent months, there has also been serious splint among the top leadership of Quetta Shura Council of the Taliban. Mullah Mansoor and Mullah Zakir are just short of being at each other's throat. Part of the reason behind their changing strategy and attitude toward the peace talks could have been result of their internal rifts that can emerge in coming months more openly.
However, despite the fact that if the power transition in Kabul in 2014 go smooth, with improvement in governance, better performance of ANSF, even if the whole insurgency continue fighting, they will not be a serious challenge to the state, apart from security challenges. On the hand, even if there is a significant breakthrough, there will remain elements who will never give up violence. Our forces and will should remain prepared to face them.