Editor in Chief: Moh. Reza Huwaida Monday, April 29th, 2024

Taliban and Post-2014 Prospects

The so-called process of negotiations with Taliban has been an exercise in vain. As we have argued for years, the entire mechanism, outline and objective of this initiative are based on one-sided attempts.

According to a Reuters' report, a top Government official has admitted that they have failed to reach out to insurgents, face-to-face.

He says there are no prospects of any real and serious progress before the 2014 elections and NATO withdrawal. "No breakthrough is expected before the 2014 election. There have been contacts here and there but no face-to-face talks have taken place. There have been none in Afghanistan or other countries.

The contacts have taken place mostly at the provincial level. For instance, an official may meet Taliban commanders and urge them not to attack schools. In practice, they need to facilitate faster. Mullah Baradar can be useful when he is released. He was the number two Taliban leader so he still has influence.

There have been some contacts with the Haqqanis in the past. The U.N. listing of the Haqqanis will make it difficult for the High Peace Council to keep contact with them," according to the official.

Officials from President Karzai to the Peace Council leaders have been claiming of contacts with insurgents, but in reality, there is not even slight progress towards a serious process of talks. They have also failed to make any contacts with mid-level leadership.

Taliban leader Mullah Omar in a recent statement on Eid had said they do not intend any internal dominance and fears of domestic conflict after NATO withdrawal are baseless. However, the Peace Council is a sovereign national initiative supported by the Afghan society through the traditional Loya Jirga, though bypassing the legal national institutions like parliament.

But Taliban have not only shown any signal of their interest in such a domestic national process, but rather Peace Council officials, who are not Government employees or linked with the international community, have been prime target and many have been killed.

For militants, the entire leadership of current political opposition are 'traitors, warlords and puppets of western powers'. Such an exclusive mentality against the ground realities of Afghan society shows grim prospects for any national domestic reconciliation and negotiations process after 2014.

Even if a new administration comes to power through popular vote and the bulk of international troops withdraw, Taliban will remain a challenge for Kabul. The counterinsurgency operations in Afghanistan have been an ISAF-led mission, which will need to be a national mission robustly led by the next government, with clear vision and strong will. There must be a red line on any compromise about the post-2001 system and democratic process in Afghanistan.