Editor in Chief: Moh. Reza Huwaida Monday, April 29th, 2024

The Cloud of Uncertainty Looms

A few days earlier, the date for the next presidential election was set, April 5, 2014, when the foreign allies' military role will shrink to minimum. Previously, there were hot discussions among politicians and activists about the destiny of coming presidential election. Many used to claim ruling elite is trying to influence the political procedure in their own favorite. 

Though fixing the schedule for presidential election has indeed met the people's concerns partly, but still doubts largely dominate in the country. People live under the shadow of nightmare of revival chaos and instability. Certainly, even with naïve and basic calculation, it can be alleged that Taliban and other insurgent groups may not be an existential threat because Taliban does not have more twenty thousand combating force while Afghan security forces have reached to 400 thousand. With the support of foreign allies in terms of training and equipment, Taliban and other insurgent groups are no match to Afghan security forces.

What make people worried are the commitment of the security forces and deep rooted communal sentiments. Perhaps, what fuels fear and concern is the repeat of history. It is possible that without a major foreign force to prevent the break of nation thread loosely wrapped around different ethnic groups, the communal feelings once gets inflamed and burn all achievements during past years.

In addition, there are figures who have just come down of mountains and put aside their arms yet may not have handed over to government. It does not look hard in the case next government does not yield their demands; they once again brandish their arms and disrupt the security situation as they definitely have supporters within the security forces too.

The first thing, what will be determining in the future is the commitment of Afghan security forces and their will to wage war against all elements who are engaged to disrupt the security situation. The second factor which is also of high importance is the will of politicians to play constructive role and do not inflame chaos for the sake of personal desires. It is also good news that some of highly influential figures have become owner to huge wealth due to high level of corruption or as a result of easy money received from donors. They may not embark to activities which threaten their economic interests.

Unfortunately, On the other hand, major of such wealth have been already transferred to safe places out of the country. Therefore, it can be inferred that without long-term commitment of foreign allies and pressure on officials, the next chapter in the future political history is not promising.