Living inside Afghanistan lets you feel better the growing ill impacts caused by political and economic uncertainty this country is facing. NATO is about two years away from complete withdrawal of its troops from Afghanistan and what the post-2014 scenario is going to bring to this country is unknown.There are so many questions circulating in the minds of Afghan people about their future. And those questions are serious.
On the security side, fears of return of insurgents or even eruption of instability and disorder are occupying more space in the minds and hearts of the people of Afghanistan. Up to a great extent this fear is due to expanding length and breadth of violence in the country.
The lingering war has – in the last ten years – cost precious lives of thousands of military personnel and civilians and it is still taking toll. Suicide attacks, targeted killings, unsafe highways, abductions that Afghans have to face on daily basis reduce their hope and add to their disappointments. As Afghanistan will move ahead, such acts brutality are expected to further increase and put the little stability of Afghanistan at the verge of destruction.
On the economic side, there are concerns that a state of recession may hit Afghanistan. Over the last few months, Afghani (AFN) has unexpectedly devalued against foreign currencies such as dollar, euro and pound. Being highly dependent on imports – basic necessities to luxurious goods -, Afghanistan needs a stable currency and abundant reverse of foreign exchange.
Nonetheless, in addition to decreasing value of AFN, the foreign exchange reserve is subject to decrease with the on-going withdrawal of US-led troops from Afghanistan. At the same time, real state price and price of other kinds of properties have already started declining.
People are afraid to block their capital in country where the future is completely vague. According to reports, $4 billion left the Kabul Airport only in 2011. In the same year, a total of about $8.5 billion were taken out of Afghanistan.
There has been a significant increase in Afghans' investments (about 30%) over a period of one year in UAE and Afghans prefer investing their money in other countries with stable security. Meanwhile in Afghanistan – that is in dire need of foreign and domestic investments – investment is decreasing.
Negative impacts of uncertainty are damaging all the gains Afghanistan has had in the last ten years in various areas. If timely measures are not taken to address the issues contributing to uncertainty, the trust of the people will be further harmed.