One of the main challenges for Afghanistan after the withdrawal of international troops would be to sustain a somewhat stable economy that would support country to a certain extent. Because of an interminable history of conflicts and wars, the economic system in the country has not been developed strongly and there are serious problems in the basic infrastructure, therefore the country would be in need of international financial support even after 2014.
According to the report by the World Bank prepared last year, the country would be in need of about $7.2 bn or more to be able to carry on its activities in different walks of life for one decade. This required amount is based on the optimistic calculations; however, it would be more than twice what the country is capable of producing.
Josephine Bassinette, the World Bank’s country director in Kabul had mentioned while presenting the report that the international community should try to avoid an “aid shock” that could imperil many of the gains made over the last 10 years. “Although it is clear, overall levels of international assistance will decline, it is really important these declines are gradual, predictable and orderly,” she said.
For Afghanistan it would be a very lengthy road to go before it can reach to self-sufficiency as far as the economic system is concerned. According to a statement on Saturday, August 11, by Minister of Foreign Affairs, Dr. Zalmai Rasool, Afghanistan would be able to achieve economic self-sufficiency and would not require the support of international community only after 2035.
This prognostication is, definitely, based on a scenario wherein a relatively peaceful environment is assumed. If the situation of peace and tranquility is disturbed in the post-2014 scenario, it would be difficult for the country even to achieve the target till the mentioned point in time.
Currently, according to the statement of Zalmai Rasool, around 90 percent of the country budget is managed through the support of the international community. This means there is not any burden on Afghan economy at all and it has yet to go through so many challenges before it is able to stand on its own.
It is important to observe that the international community has committed to support Afghanistan even after 2014 and in that regard there have been different strategic agreements signed by different developed countries with Afghanistan.
On the other hand, in one of the major international meetings on Afghanistan – the Tokyo Conference, a generous support was pledged for Afghanistan and commitments were made not to leave Afghanistan and assist it till 2025.
Definitely, the fund that would be generated as a result of the commitments in the Tokyo Conference is going to play a tremendous role in the economic future of the country and relying on this opportunity the country can be well set on the route to economic stability. Government authorities claim that they have a clear strategy how to spend the aid money.
Minister of finance, Dr. Omar Zakhilwal said on Saturday, “The government has a regular and proper plan for the world donors’ aids.” He further added that the Tokyo conference had pledged 45 percent of the aids to be spent in reconstruction of the country’s infrastructures, 25 percent in agriculture rehabilitation, 15 percent in human development resources, 15 percent in securing good governance and the remaining five percent in private sector in building and raising the activity of the private sector.
Though these statements show that the government is committed to its responsibilities; there are great challenges for which there have to be practical steps not just commitments. Moreover, there have to be a transparent strategy that must nullify all the efforts to influence the effectiveness of the aid money by cruel corruption. Transparent and ‘free of corruption’ policies will also support Afghanistan in making his reputation better and gaining the confidence of international community to support it whole-heartedly.