According to NATO figures, insurgent attacks increased by 11 percent in the past three months over the same period last year. The month of June alone accounted for the highest number of attacks in nearly two years, with more than 3,000 assaults, including firefights and the explosion of homemade bombs, according to report released on the ISAF website. Meanwhile, the higher level of assaults was linked to poppy cultivation by NATO/ISAF officials, which is assumed as the principle source of Taliban income.
"The annual start of the poppy harvest period is characterized by a considerable decrease in enemy-initiated attacks usually followed by a few weeks of lower attack levels. This year's harvest started later and finished earlier in the most poppy prevalent areas of Afghanistan compared to last year." Despite the increase in attacks, the number of coalition deaths in the first six months of this year—220—is down in comparison to the same period over the last year. The report also highlights that insurgents continue to reply on improvised explosive devices as the principle means to execute their struggle against Afghan and foreign security forces.
The above figure for June—3000 assaults— is indeed horrific. It means that on average, 100 attacks took place across the country per day! It turns much worrisome if we compare the first half of 2012 with the same period in pre-2011 years.
Till now, each year has been marked with sharp increase in insurgent activities. 2011 marked the highest number of attacks in comparison to succeeding years. And perhaps, 2012 also will stand out and set another new record for ten years long anti-insurgency struggle. There is no sign to show that the security situation improves in coming years till the withdrawal of foreign security forces.
Additionally, it is expected that the security situation further deteriorates as the United States will decrease its combating role. It would be Afghan security forces that should deal with the growing insurgency and insecurity. However, Kabul officials, particularly, President Karzai consistently emphasizes that his government is capable of restoration of peace and instability, but analysts and civilians are worried about the future.
No matter how the international community ensures that it will not allow Afghanistan changes once again into the center of terrorism and al-Qaeda, but with the current state of security forces and indecisiveness of politicians, the possibility of Taliban resurgence is not impossible. Afghan and foreign military officials along with training should concentrate on motivation of security forces. Otherwise, it will be quite difficult for them to resist against insurgents who fight in order to go to paradise.