Editor in Chief: Moh. Reza Huwaida Tuesday, April 30th, 2024

Economic Challenges in Post-2014 Scenario

In the post-2014 scenario, Afghanistan would be facing myriads of challenges in order to guarantee security and stability in the country as the international troops withdraw. It does not only require determination and iron will but resources and assistance to make the country stand on its own. One of the most dominating factors will be definitely financial support. The economic system in the country has not been developed strongly and there are serious problems in the basic infrastructure, therefore the country would be in need of international financial support even after 2014.

According to the report by the World Bank prepared last year, the country would be in need of about $7.2 bn or more to be able to carry on its activities in different walks of life for one decade. This required amount is based on the optimistic calculations; however, it would be more than twice what the country is capable of producing.

Josephine Bassinette, the World Bank's country director in Kabul had mentioned while presenting the report that the international community should try to avoid an "aid shock" that could imperil many of the gains made over the last 10 years. "Although it is clear, overall levels of international assistance will decline, it is really important these declines are gradual, predictable and orderly," she said.

According to the announced schedule, the ongoing transition period in Afghanistan is going to end till the end of 2014, after which the country itself will be responsible to guarantee its security against the terrorism.

However, the US and NATO made commitments in the recent international summits that they would support Afghanistan to a large extent. But, once the foreign troops withdraw from the country, it is going to have its impacts in two ways. First, with the withdrawal of international troops there will be decline in foreign spending on Afghanistan.

The analysts suggest that the economic growth of Afghanistan can fall almost to its half. This is really threatening for a country that is already having shaky economic growth. It would be really very tough for the allies of Afghanistan to meet the expenses of having well-trained and equipped security forces without any financial contribution from Afghanistan itself. NATO has already suggested that the number of Afghan security forces would have to be decreased.

Apart from military expenditure, there are expenses of sustaining schools, colleges, roads, offices and other infrastructures that have been built in the last ten years or so; managing all these expenses would be really a Herculean task. The second way the withdrawal of international forces may affect the country's economy is the possibility of increase in the insecurity.

The investors, both national and international ones, hesitate to invest in the areas where there is no reliability of peace and tranquility, while the security in Afghanistan has been in questions for the last couple of years or so. Moreover, the withdrawal may further deteriorate the situation and most of the investments require many years, even decades to provide some outcomes. How Afghanistan is going to make the investors trust so much is difficult to imagine.

It is believed that economic system is just like the circulatory system for society. As a circulatory system circulates blood throughout the body and guarantees life, in similar way the economic system in a society guarantees life and development.

Without a strong economic system a country suffers because of myriads of problems and may even fall in complete chaos; therefore, it is important for Afghanistan to face the economic challenges appropriately and bring about necessary changes if it wants to survive in the post-withdrawal scenario with pride and dignity and the role and assistance of international community in this regard will be of great help.