A conference of officials from around 70 countries and global agencies are underway in Tokyo Japan. There are expectations that the conference will make some very definite decisions regarding the future of Afghanistan. Two basic aims of the Conference are; 1) to strengthen the partnership between international community and Afghan government until 2014 and the Transformation Decade (2015-2024); 2) to clarify the problems and challenges for Afghanistan and international community for an enduring development strategy for Afghanistan and affirming long-term mutual commitments.
The Conference is taking place at a time when there are great concerns that after the international troops' withdrawal, the economic activities and financial supports will face declining trends and Afghanistan may face great challenges to compensate for its security expenses and providing rudimentary requirements to the common Afghans. It can be easily observed throughout the country that little has been changed in the lives of common people even after the inflow of billions of dollars in aid and assistance, as most of it has only benefitted the ruling elite, who have turned richer and more insensitive to the requirements of teeming millions.
It is certain that Afghanistan would face serious sort of economic challenges after the international troops withdraw and the country would be in dire need of the support from the international community. To put it in numbers, Afghanistan would require a sum of about $ 4.1 billion annually so as to maintain its security forces for, at least, first three years after withdrawal. In addition to that, for the non-security purposes, as suggested by World Bank, it would require $3.3 billion to $3.9 billion per year so as to avoid economic crunch. President Karzai, before the meeting had mentioned that he would seek around $4 billion annually for the first three years of Transformation Decade from the international community in the Conference.
However, President Karzai would have to show some extra-ordinary performance both for convincing the international community to provide assistance to Afghanistan opulently and for keeping them committed to the cause of Afghan war and development. The basic reason is the deteriorating image of the Afghan authorities in the international community, which is as a result of inefficiency and growing corruption. Unfortunately, there have been many examples of corruption and inaccurate usages of the assistance funds, which are enough for the international community to be doubtful about future expenditure. More unfortunate is the fact that people from within the Afghan government have been involved in such incidents. Even President's close relatives can be named in this regard.
Things would turn better if, as a response to growing corruption and inefficiency, government introduced strong accountability measures and supported the rule of law. However, such measures are non-existent, making the international community more doubtful about the use of their assistance money that they would send to us through taxing their own people.
It is now a crystal clear fact that Afghan government has not only been unsuccessful in combating the giant of corruption but also in tackling the reconciliation and peace process appropriately. It has not been able to achieve anything worthwhile in the reconciliation with Taliban except for the creation of High Peace Council (HPC) and calling Taliban as 'brothers' – both the policies have failed to gravitate Taliban to negotiation table.
As far as the political stability and the democratization process are concerned, the Afghan presidential office has not made much contribution. It has mostly strived to retain the power with the President, making the setup highly centralized and in the process hampered the democratization process.
It is necessary for the international community and the Afghan authorities to deal with the basic problems that are affecting the scenario in Afghanistan; some of which are mentioned above. Without being serious about them it would be very difficult to bring about changes in the country and ultimately in the region. The Tokyo Conference and all the other conferences that may follow must make sure that they strengthen the foundations in Afghanistan by solving the basic issues before constructing the walls of peace, sustainability, good governance and strong democracy.