There is a growing belief that Afghanistan will not be abandoned by the international community. This is based on the Strategic Partnership Agreements (SPAs) signed between Afghanistan and several western countries, including Italy, France, Britain, Australia, the United States of America and Germany as well as India.
These countries have committed themselves to the security and stability, and to the development of Afghanistan at least up to 2014. What is important now is to do all what is possible to hold a free and fair presidential election in 2014. There are increasing calls among Afghan political parties and civil society groups for reforms to the electoral law, system and processes.
They believe that without implementation of electoral reforms, it will not be possible to hold free and fair elections in 2014, and the elections will turn into a destabilizing factor in the country. President Hamid Karzai remains unwilling to respond to the calls for reforms. He might be thinking of another flawed presidential election but he must understand that he will not be able to get away with it this time as he did in 2009 fraudulent presidential election.
Down to a centralized power structure, President Karzai does have a corrupt network of loyalties across the country. He might consider relying on this network to manipulate the future elections in his own favor or in in favor of his candidate. But political parties and coalitions are not disappointed, and have already started extensive campaigning for electoral reforms. Even if all the required reforms are not implemented before 2014, they will be determined to watch the processes to check the frauds.
President Karzai appears to have the of playing the same game of accusing international community of violating the sovereignty of Afghanistan or of meddling in the internal affairs of his country if the international community chooses to push for electoral reforms. Mr. President may also think of threatening to join the Taliban whom he calls his unhappy brothers if the international community begins to push Mr. Karzai and his government hard to provide a level playing field for all candidates in the 2014 elections.
International community must remember that Afghan people are committed to move forward the democratic processes, including holding free and fair elections in his country. They expect the international community to help them in this regard.
International community must not be threatened away by President Karzai, and should begin to work with political parties, coalitions and civil society organizations for a sweeping electoral reform to make sure that the 2014 elections will not destabilize the situation. As in the words of Rep. Dana Rohrabacher, President Karzai always thinks that his own interest is the interests of Afghanistan, which is not true.