Editor in Chief: Moh. Reza Huwaida Friday, April 19th, 2024

A Responsible Withdrawal Strategy

The US Ambassador in Kabul Ryan Crocker has said Al-Qaeda would make a comeback in Afghanistan, if the West makes and hasty and early withdrawal.Talking to a British newspaper, Ambassador Crocker said: "if we decide we are tired, they will be back. Al-Qaeda is still present in Afghanistan. If the West decides that 10 years in Afghanistan is too long then they will be back, and the next time it will not be New York or Washington, it will be another big Western city. We think we have won a campaign before our adversaries have even started to fight. They have patience, and they know that we are short on that."

There is an increasing anti-war sentiment in the Western countries with forces in Afghanistan. Ambassador Crocker's remarks come days after new poll conducted in the US show the support for Afghan war has fallen to an all-time low. About 55 percent of those surveyed told the US should withdraw all its troops by 2014, the deadline set by Obama Administration. Only 25 percent of Americans were still in favor of the war on terror in Afghanistan. And 37 percent public said things were going well, and 34 percent believe the US is winning the war in Afghanistan.

The domestic public pressure, financial crisis and lack of concrete success in Afghanistan has brought the decision makers in Western capitals believe they cannot win and should leave Afghanistan. The Obama Administration is on path of a risky withdrawal strategy in rush.

The remarks of Ambassador Crocker could be a message to public in Western countries, but for Afghans, it is a matter of reality we have are going to face eventually. If the international community leave an unstable Afghanistan behind in 2014, without a concrete strategy to keep the achievements of last ten years and avoid the country going to civil war and becoming a hotbed of international terrorists and launching pad for major terrorist attacks in the West, the coming NATO summit in Chicago in May should make clear and concrete commitments for Afghanistan.

The bulk of withdrawal will not mean a quick descent into chaos and instability, as long as there is a long-term commitment through a concrete military and reconstruction strategy by the US and NATO for Afghanistan. The withdrawal will reduce about 80 percent of the cost of war. If they commit one third of that in building quality Afghan National Security Forces, and economic support of the country, Afghanistan's slow journey towards long-term stability and responsible democratic state will be next to the option of chaos and civil war after a withdrawal that does not consider the consequences.