Editor in Chief: Moh. Reza Huwaida Thursday, March 28th, 2024

Future of a Stable Afghanistan at Stake

The recent statement of President Karzai saying the international troops should withdraw by 2013, an year earlier than the deadline set by the US and NATO, once again show the current Government has not a clear strategy and vision for the country. While the coming two years are decisive for the fate of Afghanistan and stability in the region, the Karzai Administration has failed the people of Afghanistan and it seems we are on our way to ultimate breaking point of all the international efforts of last ten years in Afghanistan due to the failure of a government marred with corruption, lack of political credibility and legitimacy and national consensus.

Overreacting on the tragic incident of civilian massacre in Kandahar, President Karzai said all foreign troops should be called out of villages to their major bases and the transition of security to Afghan forces should be finalized by 2013.

It is practically impossible, and a gamble at full risk. We have been saying that the Afghan National Security Forces are not fully prepared and capable of taking all-out security control across the country. Domestic opposition political forces have been critical of the rush of withdrawal by the US and NATO. But President Karzai calls for earlier withdrawal.

There are rifts within his senior aides about the stalemate on the strategic partnership agreement with the US. The demands such as halt of night-raids and control of prisons to Afghan forces are contrary to the ground realities.

Major opposition political parties and the parliament have announced their support for the strategic partnership agreement with the US. But the Karzai Administration is making it an issue of political bargaining playing with the future of Afghanistan at stake. A major opposition political block, National Front has called the agreement should be postponed until the next elections.

Such calls from major opposition political blocks show the Karzai Administration has serious lack of political credibility, legitimacy and national consensus. In fact, the Government has no vision at such a decisive time when the fate of Afghanistan is at stake.

According to the current withdrawal strategy, the US will apparently keep 25000 to 30000 Special Forces in Afghanistan after 2014. They will largely depend on special operations, in which night raids operation are inevitable.

Without a proper domestic strategy and vision, President Karzai is gambling with the future of Afghanistan at the cost of his personal political priorities and interests of the circle around him in the President Palace. After the withdrawal of NATO troops, if a significant number of American troops do not stay, Afghanistan will soon plunge into civil war and chaos. President Karzai will be the first person to depart Kabul Airport.

Taliban's suspension of talks with the US in Qatar had to happen sooner or later as the eventual fate of the current ridiculous process. They have never been serious about peace. We have always said that domestic problem of the conflict in Afghanistan is more serious than that of the Taliban with the US. And any process ignoring that fact will result in utter failure.