As the cold winter is saying good-bye to Afghanistan and a new spring is looming, people wish the coming year will be a wonderful year of development, peace and prosperity. But that is what we have been wishing for in the last three decades. If we listen to Afghan government then all is well: security is improving, Afghan national army and police are taking over more responsibilities, Taliban are at the verge of defeat and peace will soon come to Afghanistan through peace and reconciliation process. But if we stop being overly optimistic, we will realize that it is the Afghan government that has grown so weak that it is unable protect itself, let alone the people's rights and wants.
Security is getting worse, corruption graph is growing high, Taliban's attacks are intensifying, civilian killings have increased and our economy is going towards a downfall. The greatest pitfall of the current government is that it has awfully failed to take decisions best for our national interest. It has failed to mold opportunities made available by international community in the last more than ten years in favor of Afghans. Afghan government repeats its mistake rather than learning from them.
As we move ahead we should be ready for more violence by insurgents. The withdrawal of international troops and transition of security responsibilities to Afghan security forces – that have given morale support to Taliban – make Afghanistan's future more dismal and uncertain. As the weather goes warmer, insurgents will get more active in launching attacks against international and Afghan forces and civilians.
At the same time, the Taliban seem to be utilizing the negotiation process, as a tool, for reaching their own objectives. According to Afghan authorities, five Taliban commanders from Gitmo Bay are being handed to Qatar government. It is not obvious what positive impacts will the measure have on the peace process. But one thing that is quite clear is that the Taliban leadership will gain more organized with the joining of those five being released from Gitmo Bay. This will result in intensification of Taliban's war against Afghan government and its international backers.