There are reports that the Obama Administration is planning to handover the operations in Afghanistan to US Special Forces, increasing the pace of withdrawal and transition of security to Afghan National Security Forces.
Such statements from White House show that the accelerated withdrawal has been decided and it might be announced in the Chicago NATO summit in May. Secretary Defense Leon Panetta had recently said the combat operations of US forces might end a year earlier than the deadline of 2014.
Though official in Washington downplayed his statement which was also criticized by officials of other NATO countries, yet there is no concrete drawdown strategy and a clear withdrawal deadline decided.
President Obama seems to be preparing for his reelection bid with such decisions against the ground realities in Afghanistan. When he launches the election campaign later this year, Obama will tell the American voters that he has ended a war in Iraq and now on the way phase out another one in Afghanistan.
But hypocritically, they intend to start other military missions in Middle East apparent from the utter displeasure among the US and European diplomats at the UN Security Council after the resolution against Syria was vetoed by Russia and China. The US and its NATO allies are needed to first complete one mission with responsibility, then think of starting another war.
A fast withdrawal and the uncertainty of US military role in Afghanistan beyond 2014 will lead to catastrophe. Afghan National Security Forces are unable to take full control of all military operations across Afghanistan by 2014, regardless of the Karzai Administration's empty confidence. Ordinary Afghans and opposition forces do not trust the current process of peace talks will result in a political settlement which can help keep the current process of transition continue.
If the US military role reduces to special operations, there are many hurdles caused by President Karzai himself. He staunchly opposes the night raids, which is a significant part of special operations. We cannot put all the blames on Obama Administration gambling in Afghanistan in pursuit of success in domestic politics in the US. President Karzai's stubbornness linking the approval of a Strategic Partnership Agreement with the US on end of night raids has caused a deadlock on talks about the pact.
The Special Partnership Agreement will ensure commitment from Washington beyond 2014 and President Karzai should make sure to finalize it as soon as possible before the NATO summit in Chicago coming May.