Editor in Chief: Moh. Reza Huwaida Thursday, March 28th, 2024

The Uncertain Pledges

There is an increasing sense of uncertainty among the Karzai Government and ordinary Afghans regarding the future of Afghanistan. The confusing statements from US officials and their NATO allies and absence of a concrete withdrawal plan of the US troops in Afghanistan has further left ordinary Afghans worry about the worst scenarios for our war-ravaged country beyond 2014.

The recent statement of US Secretary of Defense Leon Panetta that American troops might end combat role earlier than the 2014-deadline shows the uncertainty of concrete policy about the endgame in Afghanistan. Though the Obama Administration has downplayed Leon Panetta's statement after criticism from NATO allies and congressmen in Washington, it was a test-remark showing what the Obama Administration intends to do, and making the grounds before official announcement of an accelerated withdrawal plan.

It is a losing strategy. With such statement, the US gives a clear message to Taliban and other militants in Afghanistan that withdrawal of international troops has been decided, a concrete plan is yet to be announced. If ISAF troops will not take part in any combat operation after 2014, why would the Taliban cease fire or stay honest to their pledges in Qatar negotiations? They know that if modern forces from more than 45 countries have failed to defeat them, the Afghan National Security Forces with serious problems of lack of capacity and unprofessionalism cannot fight militants after 2014.

In the recent Munich Security Conference, Germany, the US, Australia, China and Japan have assured their continued support and assistance in Afghanistan beyond 2014. Without a concrete withdrawal plan, which might come in May at the NATO summit in Chicago, uncertain pledges of these countries cannot stop a disaster in-making in Afghanistan.

The US and its NATO allies cannot just leave Afghanistan on its own and mercy of neighbors beyond 2014. Nowadays the scenario looks to lead us to a similar situation like that of late President Najeeb's last couple of years after Soviet withdrawal when the government collapsed soon, national security forces institutions disintegrated on ethnic lines and a factional war for control of power started.

Given the fact that endgame has begun and withdrawal started, what is the Plan B of the US and its NATO allies for Afghanistan if the Qatar negotiations with the Taliban do not result in a political settlement to assure stability and continuity of the current setup in Afghanistan? That's the question that makes ordinary Afghans worry about their future.