Editor in Chief: Moh. Reza Huwaida Friday, April 27th, 2018

The Naïve Assessment

As the Afghan government is preparing for holding Loya Jirga to assess pros and cons of the possible Strategic Cooperation contract between Kabul and Washington, immature explanations circulate in the country, fuelling worries among common people. Afghan people have suffered largely during past decades. They suffered from injuries caused by evil political game of the so-called elites. Though people are aware of insatiable greed of some for name, fame and wealth, but still they involuntarily amass behind them with the blink of eyes and voice out what they dictate them. What is the reason?

There is a famous proverb within Hazara ethnic group: "Person, harmed by a snake, is scared of a black rope".

Afghan people bear the same situation now. They are motivated on the basis that American military bases would be counterproductive and plunge the country into indefinite security crisis. To justify claims, these people put the reason as follows; the United States is in dispute with two major neighboring countries, Pakistan and Iran. Both countries have close religious, lingual and cultural relation with the country. And also both countries are severely worried about Strategic Cooperation Contract as, frequently, put with officials.

Thus, it is completely unacceptable for them to accept presence of the US permanent military bases, and would fuel instability through their elements. These people, in order to strengthen faulty reason, have also linked concerns with growing international power, China, arguing the United States actually want to challenge China's growing political, economic and military might.

But they do not ask the question why respected neighbors would ever involve in evil measure to destabilize the country if US establish permanent military bases? And they would not do if it does not?

The answer of the question lies here. If neighbors seek their interests in an instable Afghanistan, they would do with and without the presence of US. If US establish military bases, there would be shield for Afghans to remain safe, but in the case of withdrawal, then the country will plunge once again into quagmire prevalent for decades.

If neighbors seek interests in stable Afghanistan, they have to accept US military presence, because it is clear without a military insurance from international community, Afghanistan may fall back to Taliban militants.

In such scenario, Kabul government along with neighboring countries will suffer. Thus, to avert a bigger danger, neighboring countries should not pressurize Kabul government to avoid signing Strategic Cooperation. And experts should notice issue too. Because the consequence of immediate military withdrawal will be such large and extensive that would not leave sphere for their maneuver too.