The ongoing multifaceted Afghan conflict going to be entered into its important phase as already security transition from ISAF to ANSF (Afghan National Security Forces) has begun. Many have different views about the aftermath of this security transition. Leaving the question about the capability of ANSF to tackle the volatile security situation without ISAF, the political aspect of the post ISAF Afghanistan has also been one of the important topics under discussion. Since, without political stability the strongest armies with huge resources are not able to bring order just by military means.
The tiring ten years of military campaign without any tangible results has seriously affected the mindsets that were optimistic about the probable defeat of Taliban/Al Qaeda militarily. Now, all the proposed ways only lead to exit. Among the NATO members and allied countries many trends are seen. Some want honorable exit and some just a way out.
Some justify the cessation of military campaign in one way and some the other way. Economic stress and public opinion in those countries have put the continuation of war in Afghanistan in serious challenges. Probably the priorities might be shifted from Afghanistan to Middle East and Northern Africa.
Some say, ISAF's mission by itself is the root cause of the present turmoil; some believe, Afghanistan is premature for the democratic values to adopt. Many believe, let Afghans learn by themselves coexistence and peaceful livelihood like Europeans fought with each other for hundred of years and then at last adopted the path to peace, coexistence and prosperity by themselves.
Nevertheless, the exit is inevitable sooner or later.
For Afghans, it is still a matter of grave concern that in the absence of ISAF what will be the probable domestic and regional equations. Many look optimistically toward the 2nd Bonn Conference to be held on December 05, 2011 and many don't believe that it will bring about any breakthrough.
Regional countries, engaged in long proxy war in Afghanistan till the last decade, are again busy in redesigning their operational policies after 2014. What will be the next power game of the region? Who will stand where in Afghanistan and the region? What role will the Afghan ethnic, lingual, regional, religious fragments play? What will be their new alignment?
Will the chaotic history of the last decade repeat itself? If yes then what will be the ultimate consequences in Afghanistan, region and on the rest of the world?
There are many more questions, nobody has yet talked about; but no one can get rid off.